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TROPICAL STORM ERIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.7N 61.4W 56 X X X 56 TIST 183N 650W X 3 2 1 6
22.0N 62.7W 10 30 X X 40 TJPS 180N 666W X X 1 1 2
23.2N 64.0W X 21 10 1 32 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 2 2 4
TAPA 171N 618W 2 X X 1 3 ST CROIX VI X 2 1 1 4
TKPK 173N 627W 2 2 1 X 5 ST THOMAS VI X 3 2 1 6
TNCM 181N 631W 6 6 X 1 13 SAN JUAN PR X X 2 2 4
TISX 177N 648W X 2 1 1 4 PONCE PR X X 1 1 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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