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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 230/05.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME.  KYLE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THERE IS EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON THIS GENERAL MOTION...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AS KYLE HAS MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED 
TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS 
THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING AND THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN 
OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY.  AT THIS TIME T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM 
TAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS MAINTAINED.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE 
PERIOD. 

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 31.3N  50.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.8N  51.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.8N  52.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.7N  54.3W    50 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 28.0N  56.1W    55 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 28.0N  57.4W    60 KTS
 
 
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