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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
 
KYLE HAS REMAINED STEADY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH NO APPARANT 
SIGN OF ANY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM...YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 75 KT...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO CREEP 
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW LAYER TO THE NORTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/05.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE 
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED 
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW 
AT THE LOW-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT AND WEAK...SO A SLOW 
STEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON 
THIS MOTION THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY 
AFTER THAT. FOR THAT REASON...KYLE IS SLOWED TO A MERE CRAWL AFTER 
48 HOURS.
 
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON KYLE IN 
ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS...SO SLOW STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST 
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH KYLE WILL REMAIN OVER 28.5 C SSTS. 
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND KYLE COULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SOME.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 27.4N  59.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 27.1N  60.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 26.9N  61.1W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 26.8N  61.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 26.6N  62.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 26.5N  62.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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