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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002
THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN TERMS OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE PATTERN HAS BECOME
LESS SYMMETRIC. THIS ASYMMETRY...ALONG WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY...
SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. ALL
AGENCIES ARE CLASSIFYING ELIDA AT 4.0/5.0. BASED ON THESE
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.
WITH THE CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO 290/11...BUT IN TRUTH MAY
BE EVEN A LITTLE LEFTWARD OF THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA DIGGING SOUTHWARD. ALL THE GUIDANCE
RESPONDS BY TURNING ELIDA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
WITH THIS UPPER LOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A SLOWER TRACK THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THE UKMET TURNS ELIDA BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET HAS BEEN THE BEST
PERFORMER WITH THIS CYCLONE SO FAR...SO THIS SCENARIO DESERVES
CONSIDERATION. GIVEN THIS...AS WELL AS THE CURRENT SHEARED
STRUCTURE OF ELIDA...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF
THE UKMET GUIDANCE.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ELIDA OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER...
WITH THE CENTER REACHING SUB-20C SSTS IN ABOUT 60 H. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING. IF THE UKMET TRACK IS
CORRECT...THEN ELIDA WOULD LIKELY HANG ON LONGER THAN INDICATED
HERE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.0N 119.7W 70 KTS
12HR VT 27/1800Z 17.7N 121.2W 65 KTS
24HR VT 28/0600Z 18.9N 123.2W 50 KTS
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 124.6W 40 KTS
48HR VT 29/0600Z 22.0N 126.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 30/0600Z 25.0N 127.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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