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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE.  THE DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM TAFB IS 1.5 AND A QUIKSCAT 
PASS OVER GENEVIEVE AT 0231 UTC CONTAINED SOME UNCONTAMINATED 25 KT 
WIND VECTORS...THUS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  GENEVIEVE 
IS MOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22-23 DEG C AND IS ENCOUNTERING 
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO.

THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... 
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION STEERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
TO THE SOUTHWEST.
 
FORECASTER AGUIRRE/KNABB/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 22.7N 125.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N 126.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.4N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     01/1800Z 25.1N 128.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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