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HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1002
2100Z FRI SEP 20 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
PROGRESSO TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  84.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  84.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  84.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.4N  85.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.8N  86.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N  87.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N  84.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N  88.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N  90.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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