000 FZNT25 KNHC 132144 OFFN04 NAVTEX Marine Forecast NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL 544 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed Coastal Waters Forecasts... Southeast Gulf of Mexico .SYNOPSIS...A weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. .TONIGHT...NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU...NE to E winds 10 kt S of 24N, and variable less than 5 kt N of 24N. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU NIGHT...S of 24N, NE to E winds 10 kt. N of 24N, N to NE winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. .FRI...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in N to NE swell. .FRI NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in N to NE swell. .SAT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in N to NE swell. .SAT NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in N to NE swell. .SUN...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in N to NE swell. .SUN NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida .SYNOPSIS...A broad and rather weak ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to central Florida. It will shift E and weaken over the next few days. Tropical Storm Ernesto is over the northeastern Caribbean Sea about 115 nm ESE of San Juan, Puerto Rico, or near 18.0N 64.1W at 5 PM EDT. It is moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Ernesto will strengthen to a hurricane near 19.3N 65.9W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 21.3N 67.6W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 23.4N 68.6W late Wed night, and continue to strengthen as it moves to near 25.4N 68.7W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Ernesto is then forecast to turn north-northeastward to near 27.2N 67.9W late Thu night, to near 29.1N 66.7W Fri afternoon, then begin to slowly weaken as it moves to north of the area passing near Bermuda Sat afternoon. In its wake, high pressure will gradually build westward roughly along 20N late Fri into the weekend. A weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the western part of the area beginning late Wed, and stalling to the NW of Ernesto by Fri. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected behind the front. Large SE swell generated from Ernesto are expected to begin to reach the Atlantic waters starting Thu night and likely to continue into weekend. .TONIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 27N, and S 5 to 10 kt N of 27N. Seas 3 to 4 ft S of 27N, and 2 to 3 ft N of 27N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. .WED...S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to N in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. .WED NIGHT...E winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and SE to S less than 5 kt N of 27N. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. .THU...N winds less than 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. .THU NIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .FRI...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in E swell. .SAT...N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .SAT NIGHT...NE winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .SUN...S to SW winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE to E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.