000 FZNT25 KNHC 142133 OFFN04 NAVTEX Marine Forecast NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL 533 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed Coastal Waters Forecasts... Southeast Gulf of Mexico .SYNOPSIS...A weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into early next week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period. .TONIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU...NE to E winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .FRI...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in SE swell. .FRI NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in N to NE swell. .SAT NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in NE swell. .SUN...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in NE swell. .SUN NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell. .MON...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell. .MON NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell. Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida .SYNOPSIS...A broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to central Florida, and will shift E and weaken through Thu. Hurricane Ernesto is near 21.7N 68.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Ernesto is expected to turn toward the north-northwest and north tonight as it continues to strengthen reaching to near 23.5N 69.0W late tonight, to near 25.7N 69.0W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt and to near 27.7N 68.0W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Afterward, Ernesto is forecast to track in a northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed, reaching near 29.5N 66.6W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it reaches near 31.3N 65.7W late Fri night and to near Bermuda Sat afternoon. A weak frontal boundary that extends from 31N75W to inland north-central Florida will continue to slide southward across the northwestern part of the area, and stall to the NW of Ernesto by Fri, producing moderate to fresh NE winds behind it. Large swell from Ernesto will spread W of 75W late Thu night through Sat morning. .TONIGHT...E winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and NE to E 10 to 15 kt N of 27N. Seas 2 to 3 ft S of 27N, and 3 to 4 ft N of 27N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU...S of 27N, SE to S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NW in the afternoon. N of 27N, N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 27N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms N of 27N. .THU NIGHT...N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and N to NE 15 to 20 kt N of 27N. Seas 5 to 7 ft in E to SE swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 27N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms N of 27N. .FRI...N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 27N. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SAT...N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. .SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .SUN...SE to S winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .SUN NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .MON...S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .MON NIGHT...S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.