000 FZNT25 KNHC 062126 OFFN04 NAVTEX Marine Forecast NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL 426 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 ...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed Coastal Waters Forecasts... Southeast Gulf of Mexico .SYNOPSIS...Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the eastern half of the basin through early this evening ahead of Hurricane Rafael, currently in the northwestern Caribbean near 22.6N 82.7W at 4 PM EST and moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Rafael will move inland western Cuba by early this evening and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael will weaken as it reaches near 23.6N 83.9W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, move to near 24.1N 85.6W early Thu afternoon, and continue to maintain intensity as it moves to near 24.2N 87.4W late Thu night, and begin to weaken as it reaches to near 24.2N 89.1W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 24.3N 90.4W late Fri night with maximum sustained 75 kt gusts 90 kt and to near 24.5N 91.1W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Rafael is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 24.6N 92.0W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Swell generated by Rafael is expected to spread over most of the basin from E to W late this week and into the weekend. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS. Straits of Florida, N to NE winds 70 to 80 kt, shifting to W late. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Elsewhere, NE winds 45 to 50 kt, increasing to 70 to 80 kt late. Seas 8 to 12 ft, building to 16 to 24 ft late. Numerous squalls and thunderstorms. .THU...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida, S to SW winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming S 30 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 70 to 80 kt, becoming S to SW 75 to 85 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Numerous squalls and thunderstorms. Vsby 1 NM or less. .THU NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida, SE to S winds 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, S winds 70 to 80 kt, becoming SE to S 45 to 55 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft Straits of Florida, and 13 to 20 ft elsewhere. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Vsby 1 NM or less. .FRI...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida, SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, SE to S winds 30 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. .FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft Straits of Florida, and 6 to 9 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .SAT...E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .SUN...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .MON...S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming SW to W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida .SYNOPSIS...The pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Hurricane Rafael in the northwestern Caribbean will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday. Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the southeastern Bahamas. .TONIGHT...E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt S of 27N, and E to SE 15 to 20 kt N of 27N. Seas 5 to 7 ft in E to SE swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU...E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt S of 27N, and E to SE 15 to 20 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft in E to SE swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .FRI...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .SUN...E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .MON...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.