000 FOPZ13 KNHC 080838 PWSEP3 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 0900 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 18 27 37 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 9 18 38 39 37 TROPICAL STORM 15 49 68 64 40 31 25 HURRICANE 85 50 22 17 4 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 80 43 18 14 4 3 1 HUR CAT 2 5 5 3 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 65KT 55KT 50KT 35KT 30KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 2 39(41) 34(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 145W 50 X 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 145W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA