000 AXNT20 KNHC 102345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico until 0000 UTC this evening. Minimal gale force northerly winds have been occurring offshore of the coast of Mexico near Veracruz behind a stalled out frontal boundary, supported by sharp high pressure ridging which extends southward just inland over eastern Mexico. The front and pressure gradient will weaken this evening allowing for winds to diminish below gale force. Seas up to 12 ft will also subside later this evening. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 04N18W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 04N18W to 08N40W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 17W and 20W, and also from 07N to 11N between 30W and 36W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 51W and 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery progressing eastward offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast and approaching Bermuda. This features is supporting a surface cold front which extends from south Florida just south of Lake Okeechobee into the east-central Gulf near 27N86W, then continuing westward as a stationary front through 26N94W, and then southward to the coast of southeast Mexico near 18N94W. Other than the gale force winds offshore of Veracruz as mentioned in the special features section above, fresh to strong northeast to east flow is occurring behind the front. Mainly gentle east to southeast flow is present south of the frontal boundary. The front will move very little through Friday night while a new cold front is forecast to sink southward across the northern Gulf Saturday, eventually merging with the old front later in the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from southeast to northwest across the basin with mainly north-northeast flow aloft across the waters. At the surface, a trough snakes from the Gulf of Honduras southeastward to 15N82W, and then southward into the southwest Caribbean near 10N82W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the southwest Caribbean. Another trough, which has the characteristics of a tropical wave, is in the eastern Caribbean reaching from eastern Puerto Rico near 18N66W southward to 1011 mb low pressure near 15.5N67W then continuing to 13N67W. Convection near the low has diminished during the past several hours, however a deep convection is firing to the east over the southeast Caribbean islands, with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 11N to 16N between 60W and 63W. The low is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours while the trough continues westward, reaching the central Caribbean early Friday, before dissipating Saturday as it approaches the western Caribbean. Mainly moderate trades will increase locally to fresh into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. ...HISPANIOLA... A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring this afternoon, but are diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. Similar conditions are forecast during the next 24 hours, with slightly more coverage possible Friday as the northern extent of a surface trough approaches the island from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough extends across the southwest north Atlantic, extending from a vigorous upper level low near 36N65W southwest through 30N70W to the northern Bahamas. This feature is supporting a surface cold front which extends from Bermuda southwest through 27N74W to near the far northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida near Jupiter. The northern extent of a surface trough reaches from the east coast of Puerto Rico to 21N65W. The cold front is forecast to reach from 23N60W to Hispaniola and Cuba Friday, dissipating Friday night. A stronger cold front will move into the northwest waters late Saturday. The trough will weaken as it approaches Hispaniola Friday. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a nearly stationary 1031 mb high centered southeast of the Azores near 35N22W. A weak surface trough is ever so slightly disrupting the ridge, extending from 21N37W to 14N42W with little associated convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ LEWITSKY