000
AXNT20 KNHC 051002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N19W to 02N35W and to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between 
22W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convection in the NW Gulf of Mexico associated an upper level
trough has dissipated early this morning, but additional
thunderstorms may impact Texas coastal waters today. Moderate to
fresh E winds dominate most of the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. 
However, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail north of a
line from the Florida Keys to Louisiana. Smoke from agricultural
fires over portions of southern Mexico is leading to reduced 
visibility and hazy conditions over parts of the SW and west- 
central Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the
southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE
winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the 
northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough N of the
Lesser Antilles combined with abundant tropical moisture is
resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the north-central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will
gradually weaken and move farther NE of the area, but atmospheric
conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. 
Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to
Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more 
information. 

Mainly fresh east winds are being observed in the SE, north-
central, and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere winds are mainly gentle. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft,
except 1 to 3 ft in the SW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western 
Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the 
SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly
in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface 
trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has 
finally lifting NE and out of the area

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 30N55W to 27N68W. No convection is
directly associated with this front, but a mid and upper-level
trough centered E of the front is inducing scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm on either side of a line from 31N45W to
22N58W. Moderate mainly N winds are noted N of the front, with
moderate to fresh E winds ahead of the front W of 65W.

Weak high pressure dominates most of the waters to the E of 65W,
but another modest cold front extends from 31N42W to 25N50W. 
Ahead of this front, to 35W, fresh SW winds prevail. Fresh NE 
winds are occurring off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara, 
as well as in the vicinity of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. 
Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, with some 7 ft seas where winds are 
fresh. Waters S of 19N are dominated by moderate trades with seas 
of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will drop southward 
over the eastern and central waters today and tonight. The front 
will move east of the area early this week, but some rough seas 
are expected behind it, N of 25N and E of 59W, through the middle 
of the week.

$$
Konarik