000 AXNT20 KNHC 212247 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea today through Wed then lift out to the northeast through Fri. This feature is expected to destabilize the atmosphere, and support very active convection across the south-central Caribbean beginning today, with strong afternoon convection across the Greater Antilles. Convection is then expected to develop north and northeastward across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles, from Jamaica and eastern Cuba, to western Puerto Rico, Wed through Fri. Latest computer model guidance currently suggests that the highest rainfall accumulations with this event may occur across Hispaniola. Residents in these locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 10W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Isolated moderated convection is depicted over the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida in association to a surface trough across the area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure extends from the eastern U.S. into the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across the Gulf, with slight seas. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin through the end of the week, with moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Fri and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information about Significant Rainfall Event in the Caribbean. A deep layered upper trough along 75W extends from the western Atlantic to western Cuba, and is digging southward across the NW Caribbean. This feature has initiated numerous moderate to strong convection across the waters between Hispaniola and Cuba, N of 14N between 72W and 80W. Weak high pressure ridge prevails just N of the area, to the E of 74W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds across the central and eastern basin, E of 76W. Seas in this area are 6 to 8 ft. W of 76W, easterly winds are moderate to locally fresh with seas 4 to 7 ft. Otherwise, gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist across the southwestern basin and north of the Cayman Islands. Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America are causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the deep layer trough will will support active weather across the central portions of the basin, and will gradually shift NE through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the central Caribbean will shift northeastward through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, but continue to thin out. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the northern waters, from 30N74W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 28N75W then continues across the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted S of 30N between 59W and 76W, supported by a deep layered upper trough. Moderate NE winds prevail across the waters NW of the trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area. In the central Atlantic, 1026 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 33N24W, and extends a ridge W-SW to near 24N64W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail within the ridge between 20N and 30W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft within the ridge. South of 20N, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds prevail, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic E of 35W, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 24N between 35W and 25W with seas to 4 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail off the Africa coast to 20W, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing between 20W and 35W. Seas range 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned trough will weaken midweek. Another trough will develop just southeast of the trough and extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift eastward through Thu night. Moderate winds and seas will prevail in the western Atlantic with the trough through midweek. Weak low pressure is expected to develop just N of Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds and active weather. $$ AReinhart