000 AXNT20 KNHC 220605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough currently over the western Caribbean will lift slowly northeastward across central Caribbean through Fri. This feature is expected to combine with abundant tropical moisture to support widespread deep convection across eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. Latest computer model guidance suggests the highest rainfall accumulations to be across Hispaniola. Residents in all the above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal coast near Ziguinchor, then curves southwestward to 06N22W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N22W across 08N35W to 05N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the trough from 04N to 09N between 10W and 21W, and near the ITCZ from 07N to 10N between 29W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Based on the latest observations and earlier satellite imagery, smoke and haze caused by agricultural fires in Mexico is reducing visibilities to between 4 and 6 nm at the western and central Gulf. For the forecast, hazy conditions are expected across the western Gulf through at least Wed afternoon. High pressure will remain to the northeast of the Gulf through the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds east of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu night through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about a Significant Rainfall Event. A mid to upper-level trough extends southward from central Cuba to Panama, providing divergent flow over the central basin. Meanwhile, a surface trough over Jamaica and eastern Cuba is sustaining moist southerly flow across the central basin. These elements are joining forces to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from near the Windward Passage southward to waters south of the Jamaica and Haiti. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring over central and eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present at the central basin. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America are causing reduced visibilities, down to 3 to 5 nm across the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the mid to upper-level trough mentioned in the Special Features section will prolong active weather across the central basin, which will gradually shift northeast through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the central basin through Wed will shift northeastward Wed night through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the central Caribbean Fri and Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the eastern and northwestern basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America is going to spread northwestward into the Yucatan coast. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough runs southward from west of Bermuda across 31N74W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Strong divergent winds east of the trough axis are coupling with modest convergent southerly surface winds to generate scattered moderate convection from 20N to 31N between 61W and 72W, including waters near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough related to a 1013 mb low near 28N75W is triggering isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between 72W and 75W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are found near the low and related surface trough north of 28N between 65W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge is supporting gentle winds and 2 to 3 ft seas north of 23N between 30W and the Bahamas. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident north of 13N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 23N between 30W and the Leeward Islands, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. Farther south from the Equator to 05N between 30W and the Windward Islands, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft in large southerly swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough and related low along with the mid to upper-level trough, altogether will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western Atlantic between the trough axis and 62W. The surface trough will drift southeastward and weaken during midweek. Afterward, another trough will develop just southeast of the old trough and extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift eastward through Thu night. Moderate winds and seas will prevail in the western Atlantic with the trough through midweek. Weak low pressure is expected to develop just north of Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds and active weather. $$ Chan