000 AXNT20 KNHC 222324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu May 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough currently digging southward over the western Caribbean will lift slowly northeastward across central Caribbean Thu through Fri. This feature is expected to combine with abundant tropical moisture to support widespread deep convection across eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. The latest model guidance suggests the highest rainfall accumulations to be across southern Hispaniola tonight and Thu. Residents in all the above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the upcoming hurricane season is analyzed from 12N southward along 40W. According to satellite Hovmoller data, this wave is moving at 10-15 kt. A scatterometer pass and satellite derived wind data at 700 mb clearly show the wind shift associated with this wave, which is supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 11N between 37W and 44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 09N13W then curves southwestward to 05N19W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues westward from 05N26W across 04N38W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N41W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 16W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fair and hazy skies prevail across the entire Gulf, as smoke from agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America continues to disperse across the basin. This is limiting visibility to 4 and 6 nm across large portions of the western and central Gulf. A weak surface ridge extends from the SE U.S. SW into the E Gulf while lower pressures dominates the western half of the basin. This pressure pattern is producing light to gentle E to SE winds across the basin E of 90W, and moderate to locally fresh SE winds across the waters W of 90W. Seas are moderate to 5 ft to the W of 90W and slight elsewhere. For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico will continue across all but NE portions of the Gulf through tonight. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu night through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about the Significant Rainfall Event. A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from the western Atlantic along 74W S-SW across Cuba to Costa Rica and Panama. This feature aloft support a surface trough that extends from 13N74W across the Windward Passage to the southern Bahamas. Diffluent flow associated with the trough aloft and abundant moisture across the central Caribbean is generating widespread numerous showers and scattered tstms over Panama and Costa Rica adjacent waters, the central basin, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and E Cuba, including the Windward and Mona Passages. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas at 8 to 9 ft are present at the north-central basin N of 15N with gusty winds in the areas of strong tstsms per recent scatterometer and GLM data. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted along the SW basin S of 13N between 71W and 82W. Otherwise, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, and spreads NW to the Yucatan coast causing reduced visibilities down to 3 to 5 nm. For the forecast, the strong deep level trough will continue across the Caribbean through tonight, then lift out to the NE Thu through Sat. This feature will support active weather across the central portions of the basin, which will gradually shift NE and into the Atlc through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the central Caribbean will shift northeastward tonight through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the north-central Caribbean Thu night through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the E portions and moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, and spreads NW to the Yucatan coast. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves Section for information on the first tropical wave of the upcoming hurricane season. A sharp mid to upper-level trough is supporting a surface trough that extends from 30N71W southward across the northwest Bahamas across Cuba into the W Caribbean. A second surface trough extends from 24N72W to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across the western Atlantic between 62W and 76W. A weak pressure gradient across the SW N Atlantic waters, continue to support light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas N of 24N and W of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are ongoing S of 24N between 36W and 65W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is supporting light to gentle variable winds N of 24N, except for moderate to fresh NE winds from the W coast of Africa to 30W. In the tropics, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are W and E of the Cape Verde Islands along with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades are across the remainder tropics E of the Lesser Antilles along with moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will weaken through tonight. Another trough across the Windward Passage and SE Bahamas will drift eastward through Thu night. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the trough just N of Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat night, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds and active weather. $$ AReinhart