000 AXNT20 KNHC 241057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough extending southwestward from the Windward Passage to near Costa Rica/Panama continues to slowly lift northeastward over Hispaniola. With both divergent winds aloft and abundant moisture still over Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, sporadic deep convection are expected near these locations through today. Latest model guidance still suggests the heaviest rainfall to be near southern Dominican Republic. Residents in the above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located near 52W, from 12N southward and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 51W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal coast near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 3.5N30W to 04N40W to 05N45W. From 03N to 06N between 37W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh winds off the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula, between a trough emerging off the west coast of the peninsula and higher pressure over the eastern Gulf. Other scatterometer data and buoy observations indicated gentle to moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft combined seas, except for light breezes over the far eastern Gulf closer to the high pressure. Recent observations also confirm hazy conditions persist over the southwest Gulf, attributed to lingering smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Visibility has improved over the northwest Gulf, however. No other significant weather is observed at this time. For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin through the end of the week, with an occasional weak trough over the southwest Gulf. This pattern will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas over the western Gulf, and generally light to gentle breezes and slight seas over the eastern Gulf through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about a Significant Rainfall Event. A surface trough reaches from eastern Cuba to south of Jamaica. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds were pulsing over the Bay Islands off the the north- central coast of Honduras, embedded in an area of moderate SE to E winds across the remainder of the Gulf of Honduras where combined seas are likely 3 to 5 ft. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are also noted across the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted across the remainder of the basin, where the weak trough over eastern Cuba and Jamaica is breaking up the pressure gradient. A vigorous but small area of thunderstorms is active off the far southeast coast of the Dominican Republic, associated with the upper trough described in the Special Features. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active north of the monsoon trough off eastern Panama. Smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in Central America persists across the Gulf of Honduras, and offshore from Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Latest observations reveal reduced visibilities of 4 to 6 nm. For the forecast, the strong deep-layered trough across the Caribbean from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua will lift out to the NE through late Sat. This feature will support active weather across the central portions of the basin, which will gradually shift NE and into the Atlantic through tonight. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the nort ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp deep-layered trough extends southward from west of Bermuda across 31N70W and the central Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba, providing divergent flow to its east. Meanwhile, a surface trough near the southeast Bahamas is maintaining a moist southerly flow. This combination is triggering scattered moderate convection from 20N to 25N between 65W and 70W, including the southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A surface ridge associated with a 1021 mb high near 30N47W and a 1021 mb high near 27N33W is supporting gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 24N between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast, except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas from 20N to 27N between 62W and 70W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist north of 13N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N/24N between 25W/30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the scattered showers and thunderstorms along with fresh winds and building seas will persist today near a developing low pressure area roughly half way between Bermuda and Hispaniola. Expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas near the low pressure through Sat as it makes its closest point of approach of 210 nm to the southeast of Bermuda Sat afternoon before weakening as it moves slowly into the north central Atlantic through the early part of next week. Farther west, weak high pressure will build between Bermuda and the central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low pressure. Looking ahead, moderate winds and seas are possible north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast by mid week. $$ Christensen