000 AXNT20 KNHC 241652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri May 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough extending southwestward from the Windward Passage to near Costa Rica/Panama continues to lift northeastward across eastern Hispaniola. With both divergent winds aloft and abundant moisture still over Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, sporadic deep convection are expected near these locations through today. Residents in the above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located near 54W, from 13N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 52W and 60W, including over French Guiana, Suriname, and Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W, then curves southwestward to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 40W and 50W, and within 60 nm of the remainder of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging across the Gulf of Mexico is driven by 1016 mb high pressure centered over Florida. SE winds are gentle to moderate in the waters west of 90W, with light to gentle SE winds east of 90W. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 90W, and 1-3 ft east of 90W. In the Bay of Campeche, winds may locally gust to fresh speeds with seas to 6 ft. The latest surface observations confirm reduced visibilities and hazy conditions across the southwest Gulf, due to smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico. For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through the end of the week, with moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about a Significant Rainfall Event impacting Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Windward and Mona Passage, and in the south-central Caribbean within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh trades in the Gulf of Honduras, where smoke from agricultural fires in Honduras continues to reduce visibilities to 3 nm. Please exercise caution in areas of dense smoke. Elsewhere, trades are light to gentle across the basin with seas of 3-5 ft. In the far SE Caribbean, some moderate trades were detected by scatterometer this morning. For the forecast, the strong deep-layer trough across the Caribbean from eastern Cuba to northern Costa Rica will lift NE through late Sat. This feature will continue to support active weather across the central portions of the basin, which will gradually shift NE and into the Atlantic through tonight. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the north-central Caribbean through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the E portions and moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America may persist across the Gulf of Honduras today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The deep-layered trough responsible for heavy rainfall across Hispaniola continues to move north and west away from the Greater Antilles. At the surface, 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 23N72W, along a surface trough extending from 28N66W to the low to central Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 28N between 62W and 72W. Fresh to strong winds are along the trough, with 5-7 ft seas from 21N to 28N between 63W and 71W. Elsewhere, 1022 mb high pressure is just northwest of the Canary Islands, providing for moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, another low is expected to form along the aforementioned surface trough about halfway between Bermuda and Hispaniola today. Although environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves northeastward. Farther west, weak high pressure will build between Bermuda and the central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low pressure. Looking ahead, moderate winds and seas are possible north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast by mid-week. $$ Mahoney