000 AXNT20 KNHC 242124 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat May 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall Event in the Caribbean: Satellite imagery shows that a weak area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda near 25.5N70W. This system is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves generally northeastward. Aloft, a deep-layered trough extends southwestward from 30N73W across eastern Cuba and into the SW Caribbean Sea limiting the tropical development in the area. A band of moisture will persist ahead of the trough axis over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands. Locally heavy rain may occur over these locations through the upcoming weekend, particularly over Hispaniola. Residents in the above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the season has its axis along 55W from 12N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis S of 10N. The wave appears to enhance convection over parts of French Guiana and Suriname. Latest sccatterometer pass captured the wind shift associated with the wave axis. The wave will cross the Windward Island on Sat. Gusty winds and active weather are expected with the wave. Of note: On average, about 60 waves are generated over North Africa each year, but it appears that the number that is formed has no relationship to how much tropical cyclone activity there is over the Atlantic each year. While only 60% of the Atlantic tropical storms and minor hurricanes originate from easterly waves, nearly 85% of the intense (or major) hurricanes have their origins as easterly waves. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W, then continues SW to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to near the Brazil/ French Guiana border. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 40W and 40W, and from 02N to 10N between 47W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh SE winds over the western half of the Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft, and gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern half of it with seas of 1 to 3 ft. The latest surface observations confirm reduced visibilities and hazy conditions across the western Gulf, due to smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico. In addition, visible satellite imagery also confirmed the presence of the smoke extending northward from the Bay of Campeche creating hazy conditions. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to shift east-southeastward starting Sun. Moderate to fresh winds over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the esatern Gulf are expected to continue through the weekend, except for winds becoming light and variable over most of the eastern Gulf through early next week. A cold front will move across the NE Gulf from late Tue through Wed night, followed by gentle to moderate west to northwest winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about a Significant Rainfall Event impacting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Scattered showers are isolated thunderstorms are noted over parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Convection has also flared-up over northern Colombia and western Venezuela. A convergent pattern aloft supports this convective activuity. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, where smoke from agricultural fires in Honduras continues to reduce visibilities to 3 nm. Please exercise caution in areas of dense smoke. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades are noted across the basin, with the exception of moderate winds over the far SE Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the strong deep-layer ridge axis across the Caribbean from eastern Cuba to northern Costa Rica will lift NE through late Sat. This feature will continue to support active weather across the central portions of the basin, which will gradually shift NE and into the Atlantic through tonight. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the north-central Caribbean through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the E portions and moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America may persist across the Gulf of Honduras today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The deep-layered wave responsible for light to heavy rainfall across Hispaniola continues to move north and east away from the Greater Antilles. At the surface, 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 23N72W, along a surface trough extending from 28N66W to the low to central Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 28N between 62W and 72W. Fresh to strong winds are along the trough, with 5-7 ft seas from 21N to 28N between 63W and 71W. Elsewhere, 1022 mb high pressure is just northwest of the Canary Islands, providing for moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, another low is expected to form along the aforementioned surface trough about halfway between Bermuda and Hispaniola today. Although environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves northeastward. Farther west, weak high pressure will build between Bermuda and the central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low pressure. Looking ahead, moderate winds and seas are possible north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast by mid-week. $$ GR