000 AXNT20 KNHC 251648 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 60W from 14N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N between 57W and 62W. The analyzed position of the tropical wave is supported by Upper Air Sounding data from Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago. Satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SE winds east of the wave axis to 57W. The tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands today, bringing gusty winds, showers, and tstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 20W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails due to high pressure over the SE US and northeast of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are analyzed west of 90W. Light to gentle SE to S winds and 1-3 ft seas are analyzed east of 90W. Hazy conditions across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche continue due to agricultural fires in Mexico; visibilities may be restricted in these waters. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to shift east-southeastward starting Sun. Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate southeast to south winds elsewhere are expected to continue through the rest of the weekend, except for winds becoming light and variable over most of the eastern Gulf through early next week. A cold front will move across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed, followed by gentle to moderate west to northwest winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient provides for light to gentle trades across the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where trades are pulsing to fresh speeds. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is in the southern Caribbean from 10N to 13N between the coast of Colombia and 80W. An upper level trough persisting across the basin east of the Windward Passage may enhance any convection that develops today, including in southern Hispaniola. Dense smoke continues to limit visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras, as agricultural burning continues in the region. For the forecast, generally gentle trade winds are expected across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast to develop over the central Caribbean Mon through Wed. A tropical wave currently in the Tropical N Atlantic is near 59W south of 15N. The wave will cross the Windward Islands this afternoon and move into the far eastern Caribbean this evening and tonight. It will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon, then become ill-defined as it approaches the central Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Gusty winds and active weather are expected with the wave. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America may persist across the Gulf of Honduras over the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1012 mb low pressure is near 27.6N66W. A trough extends from the low northeast to 31N62W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N between 60W and 64W. 1015 mb high pressure is centered just northeast of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across most of the basin. NE winds are fresh from 16N to 24N east of 22W near the coast of Africa. In the far W Atlantic near the Bahamas, Florida, Cuba, and the Straits of Florida, seas are 2-4 ft with light and variable winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the low will continue to move generally east-northeastward through Sun evening as it weakens further and becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. The associated gradient will support moderate winds and seas north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon night, move across the waters east of northern Florida early on Tue, reach from near 31N79W to east-central Florida early on Wed and from near 31N78W to 29N79W and stationary to east- central Florida Wed night. $$ Mahoney