000 AXNT20 KNHC 252316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 61W from 15N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Windward Islands. Satellite scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with the wave, with fresh to strong SE winds on the east side of the wave axis to 57W. The tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean on Sun, and the associated moisture could reach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Sun into Mon increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then continues SW to near 07N16W. The ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 03N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 23W and 30W, and from 05N to 08N between 50W and 55W. Similar convective activity is over parts of French Guiana. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is moving across Liberia and Sierra Leone. This convective activity may be associated with the next tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to locally fresh SE winds over the western half of the Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft, and gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern half of it with seas of 1 to 3 ft. The smoke graphic from NESDI indicates medium concentration of smoke, resulting in hazy conditions across the western Gulf, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, visible satellite imagery also confirmed the presence of the smoke extending northward from the Bay of Campeche across the western Gulf, including also the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. For the forecast, a relatively weak high pressure ridge will continue to extend from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf into the upcoming week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern over the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh southeast to south winds will exist W of 87W through early Mon while light to gentle southeast to south winds are expected E of 87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W afterwards while winds east of 87W generally become light and variable, except S of 26N where gentle northeast winds are forecast. Seas will be slight to moderate during the period. A cold front is expected to move across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed, followed by gentle to moderate west to northwest winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Similar convective activity is over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N and E of 81W. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity. The most recent satellite scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, where dense smoke continues to limit visibilities as agricultural burning continues in the region. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades are noted across the basin, with the exception of moderate winds in the vicinity of the ABC Islands and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft across the basin. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate trade winds across the basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast to develop over the central Caribbean Mon, increasing to fresh to strong speeds late Mon night through late Tue night, then shifting to between 75W and 80W for the rest of the forecast period. A tropical wave presently crossing the Windward Islands will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Caribbean waters tonight through Mon. Strong gusty winds and rough seas are likely with this activity. The wave may lose definition as moves across the central Caribbean during mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The deep-layered trough persists E of Florida. It crosses the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba extending southward across the central Caribbean. A band of multilayer clouds with embedded showers and thunderstorms remains ahead of the trough, and extends across the Atlantic from Hispaniola, where convection has flared-up again late this afternoon, to near 31N60W. At the surface, a 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near 28N64W, along a surface trough extending from 31N60W to the low center to near 20N69W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. A cold front is over the Madeira Islands. Based on satellite derived wind data, mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted N of 20N while moderate to fresh trades are S of 20N. Mainly fresh northerly winds are seen from 16N to 24N E of 22W to the coast of W Africa. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in open waters. In the far W Atlantic near the Bahamas, Florida, Cuba, and the Straits of Florida, seas are 2 to 4 ft with light and variable winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned low pressure will continue to move generally ENE through Sun evening as it weakens further with the trailing trough. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. The associated gradient will support moderate winds and seas north of the Bahamas and off northeastern Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that is expected to move across the waters north of the Bahamas Tue through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. $$ GR