000 AXNT20 KNHC 261104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun May 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 18N between 57W and 65W. The tropical wave will move through the eastern Caribbean Sea today, the central basin on Mon and the W Caribbean Tue. Showers are likely for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight into Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea close to 10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 06N30W to 05N40W. A squall line is generating heavy showers and tstms from from 01N to 10N between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 27W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is E of 87W with light to gentle variable winds and slight seas. W of 87W, lower pressure tightens the gradient and supports moderate to fresh SE winds with moderate seas to 6 ft. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to extend from the western Atlantic across the E Gulf into the upcoming week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern over the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh SE to S winds will exist W of 87W through early Mon while light to gentle SE to S winds will exist E of 87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W afterwards while winds east of 87W generally become light and variable, except S of 26N where they become gentle NE winds. Seas will be slight to moderate during the period. A cold front is expected to move across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed, followed by gentle to moderate W to NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is presently just west of the Windward Islands along 63W, generating heavy showers of tstms over the E Caribbean. High pressure over the E Gulf of Mexico as well as in the NE of the northern Bahamas, supports moderate to fresh trade winds across the Gulf of Honduras and the central and E Caribbean. Seas are moderate in the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia and slight elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds late Mon night through late Tue night, then shifting to between 75W and 80W for the rest of the forecast period. The tropical wave will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the E Caribbean waters through Mon. Strong gusty winds and rough seas are likely with this activity. The wave may lose definition as moves across the central Caribbean during mid week. Dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America is likely to change over the Gulf of Honduras into the early part of the upcoming week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1012 mb low is near 28N63W, with a trough extending SW to Haiti and associated scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh winds are in the E semicircle of the low along with moderate seas to 6 ft. The Azores High and associated ridge dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas to 8 ft are N of 20N and E of 37W. Similar winds and seas are ongoing in the tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the low will continue to move generally ENE through this evening as it weakens further with a trailing trough. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. The associated gradient will support moderate winds and seas N of the Bahamas and off NE Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that is expected to move across the waters N of the Bahamas Tue through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. $$ Ramos