000 AXNT20 KNHC 270553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 10N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward between 30W and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from 20N southward between 54W and 73W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/0000 UTC, are: 1.16 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moisture associated with this wave will spread to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from tonight into Monday. Everything will reach the Dominican Republic on Monday. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible, especially in mountainous areas, leading to possible flash floods. Numerous strong rainshowers are in Venezuela from 06N to 09N between 65W and 67W. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather bureau office for more detailed information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau close to 12N16W, to 07N19W,, and to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W, to 06N33W, and then along 03N/04N between 35W and 47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak east-to-west oriented ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the open waters of the western half of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the coastal waters from 90W westward, and in the entire eastern half of the area. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 20N to 24N between 93W and 97W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Mostly moderate SE winds are from 90W eastward. A medium concentration of smoke, and hazy conditions, are in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Agricultural fires are in SE Mexico and in the Yucatan Peninsula. A relatively weak high pressure ridge will continue to extend from the western Atlantic across the E Gulf into the upcoming week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern over the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh SE to S winds will exist W of 87W through early Mon while light to gentle SE to S winds will exist E of 87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W afterwards while winds east of 87W generally become light and variable, except S of 26N where they become gentle NE to E winds. Seas will be slight to moderate during the period. A weak cold front will move across the far NE Gulf Mon and Mon night, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through Tue, then pulse to mostly fresh speeds afterwards. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is sending cyclonic wind flow from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Windward Passage. The affected areas include the Bahamas, Cuba, and parts of Central America. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The upper level trough, and abundant northward-moving tropical moisture, will continue to enhance the development of rainshowers in the Caribbean Sea, especially in Puerto Rico and in Hispaniola, from tonight into Monday. A dense concentration of smoke is in the Gulf of Honduras, due to inland northern Central America agricultural fires. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond 85W in the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm on either side of the 05N78W 08N76W 11N73W, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Colombia and Panama. Fresh to strong SE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Honduras. Fresh SE winds cover the rest of the NW corner of the area that is from 15N northward between 82W and 87W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are on the eastern side of the 67W/69W tropical wave. Moderate to fresh NE winds are on the western side of the tropical wave. Moderate seas are from the western half of the coastal waters of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate seas are in parts of the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure over the W Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds late Mon night through early Wed, diminishing back to moderate to fresh speeds afterwards. A tropical wave with axis along the Mona Passage will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the NE Caribbean through early Mon, as it continues its track to the W Caribbean by the middle of the week. Strong gusty winds, lightning and rough seas accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough passes through 31N57W, to 26N64W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 23N to 28N between 50W and 56W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers are in the remainder of the areas that are between 50W and 70W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 13N northward from 50W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 16N to 22N from 30W eastward. Moderate seas are from 31N32W 24N45W 27N56W 20N60W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 29N20W 26N33W 19N45W 16N60W southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A trough extends from 31N57W to 26N63W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are between 23N and 28N and east of 56W. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure elsewhere will change little during the next few days. The associated gradient will support mostly moderate winds and seas north of the Bahamas and off NE Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that will move across the waters north of the Bahamas Tue into midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will precede the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. $$ mt/nr