000 AXNT20 KNHC 271048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon May 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 01N to 10N near 35W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Abundant moisture S of 10N and diffluent flow east of an upper- level trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms from 03N to 10N between 28W and 38W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 69W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave has moved into a slightly drier environment per Total Precipitable Water imagery as well as a strong wind shear envrionment. This has diminished the convection to widely scattered showers over the eastern and central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau close to 12N16W SW to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 05N32W, and then resumes near 04N37W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 10W and 18W, and from 02N to 07N between 38W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across Florida into the eastern half of the basin while lower pressures dominate W of 90W. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds over the south-central and SW basin. In the far NE Gulf, between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana, winds are gentle to moderate from the SW ahead of an approaching front. Seas are moderate basin-wide as indicated by recent altimeter data. Otherwise, middle-level diffluent flow support scattered to isolated showers over the NW Gulf N of 26N. For the forecast, high pressure and ridging will continue to dominate across the basin trough Fri, thus maintaining a generally weak pressure pattern over the region. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds W of 86W will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds late today, but will resume again Thu evening through Fri night. Seas will be slight to moderate basin-wide during the forecast period. A weak cold front will move across the far NE Gulf today and tonight, followed by gentle to moderate W to NW winds. Otheriwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through Wed, then pulse to mostly fresh speeds afterwards. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature over the Caribbean is a tropical wave that is moving across the central basin along with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas. Convection associated with this wave has diminished due to a strong shear environment and movement into a slightly drier region. See the Tropical Waves Section for further details. The pressure gradient between a broad ridge N of the region and lower pressure associated with both the tropical wave and the E Pacific eastern extension of the monsoon trough continues to support moderate to fresh easterlies E of 80W. This gradient is also supporting fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas across the basin are moderate, in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure and associated ridging over the W Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and far NW Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will resume tonight and will also develop in the south-central basin as a tropical wave moves over the waters S of Hispaniola. These winds will shift to the SW Caribbean through early Wed morning as the tropical wave continues to move westward. Strong gusty winds, lightning and moderate to rough seas will likely accompany this wave. Moderate to fresh winds are forecast for the central and eastern basin the remainder forecast period while gentle to moderate trades will dominate the waters of the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For information on all the tropical waves, see the Tropical Waves Section. A surface trough extends from 30N55W to 24N62W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic W and E of the trough is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is supporting gentle to moderate winds, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 33W. Moderate to fresh trades are also between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, middle-level diffluent flow support scattered showers and isolated tstms, ahead of the trough, from 22N to 28N between 47W and 56W. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will move E of the area tonight. Otherwise, high pressure and associated ridging will prevail across most of the area through the week. By tonight, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that will move across the waters north of 27N Tue into midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will precede the front along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Ramos