000 AXNT20 KNHC 271655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon May 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 16W, south of 15N, based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics guidance. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 11N and east of 20W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has been relocated along 39W, south of 11N, based on recent scatterometer satellite data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N and between 35W and 43W. The satellite-derived wind data also captured fresh to strong winds primarily associated with the strongest convection. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea along 70W, south of 21N, extending across the Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela. The wave passage was evident in the 1200 UTC Santo Domingo, DR, radiosonde at 700 mb. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh winds associated with this wave. The wave is moving into the dry side of the upper level trough that extends from the western Atlantic to the SW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen east of the trough axis to 66W and north of 15N. Moisture associated with this wave will spread on Tue into Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The storm activity may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the next few days from eastern Cuba to the Virgin Islands, especially in mountainous areas, leading to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N38W and then from 05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 08N and between 28W and 34W, and also south of 07N and west of 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda continues to extend into the western Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring south of 25N and between 85W and 95W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico persist across most of the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Visibilities are 3 nm or less across many observing sites along the SW and western Gulf coast. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf trough Fri, maintaining a weak pressure pattern over the basin. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds west of 87W will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today, but will resume again Thu evening through Fri night. A weak cold front will move across the far NE Gulf late tonight, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night for the next several days. Haze from agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue west of 87W for at least the next couple of days. Visibilities will be 3 NM or less in the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave currently moving across the central Caribbean Sea. Aside from the tropical wave, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough straddles the isthmus of Panama into western Colombia, enhancing the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW and south-central Caribbean, especially within 120 nm of the coasts of Panama and Colombia. A persistent upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic into the SW Caribbean and maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions in the NW Caribbean. A 1020 mb high pressure system north of the islands dominates the basin, forcing moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds over much of the eastern and central Caribbean and also west of 84W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over Central America. Visibilities are 3 nm or less along the northern coast of Honduras and Bay Islands. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and lower pressure along N South America will force fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Wed before diminishing late in the week. A tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean will be contributing toward scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America are causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic. Divergence aloft and a couple of surface troughs in the central Atlantic result in isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 48W and 58W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad surface ridging, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a 1020 mb Bermuda High is contributing toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin today. A weak cold front should emerge from the SE United States coast tonight, but then become stationary north of the Bahamas and dissipate by Wed. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas - away from the thunderstorms - should remain quiescent for the next several days across the forecast waters. $$ Delgado