329 AXNT20 KNHC 281109 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue May 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is E of the Cape Verde Islands from 01N to 14N with axis near 21W, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 20W and 30W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 01N to 08N with axis near 49W, moving westward at about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 48W and 58W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 21N with axis near 74W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are across Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal close to 15N17W to 07N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N30W to 05N40W. For information regarding convection, see the Tropical Waves Section. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge dominates the eastern half of the basin while lower pressures are ongoing W of 90W. This pressure difference supports gentle to moderate SE winds W of 88W and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Seas across the region are slight to moderate with the highest seas to 4 ft happening W of 90W. Haze continues west of 87W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico, whis is limiting visibilities to 3 NM or less. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through Sat. As a result, winds will be SE gentle to moderate west of 87W through Thu, but become moderate to fresh Thu evening through Sat night. A weak cold front will move across the far NE Gulf today, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night for the next several days. Haze west of 87W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days. Visibilities will be 3 NM or less in the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure N of the area and the passage of a tropical wave across the central basin is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate, being highest over the central region with seas to 7 ft. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and lower pressure along N South America will force fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Wed before diminishing late in the week. A tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb Bermuda High is contributing toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin, except for moderate to fresh SW winds across the offshore zones N of Freeport. The Azores High associated ridge influences the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds, except E of 34W, where winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E. Moderate to fresh trades are across the tropical waters from the coast of W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue across the offshore zones N and NE of Freeport ahead of a weak cold front forecast to emerge from the SE United States coast this morning. The front will become stationary north of the Bahamas today and dissipate tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Winds and seas away from the thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few days across the forecast waters. Looking ahead, a late-season cold front is anticipated to impact the waters north of the Greater Antilles Fri night into at least Sat night. $$ Ramos