479 AXNT20 KNHC 292103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu May 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W/19W, S of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 15N and east of 23W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, south of 11N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 11N between 35W and 41W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N and between 55W and 62W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, south of 16W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 05N33W and then from 05N38W to 06N53W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 28W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the NE Gulf from central Florida to Louisiana while a surface trough is noted in the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are found W of 90W with light winds E of 90W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America persist across most of the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Observation sites along the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf continue to report visibilities at 3 nm of less. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through Sun. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. A weak cold front moving across the far NE Gulf will continue to support gentle W to NW winds over that region today, while dissipating by tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, impacting visibility at times. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extending into the NW Caribbean Sea continues to push tropical moisture northward supporting scattered showers over portions of the NW and central Caribbean, affecting eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. The environment will remain conducive for showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola during the next several days, especially in the evening and night hours. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible, especially in mountainous areas, leading to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 42N48W SW to the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are in the 5-8 ft range. Gentle to light winds and slight seas are in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft prevail over much of the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central America. Visibilities may decrease below 3 nm at times, especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds will become moderate to fresh Thu and Fri as the pressure gradient temporarily loosens. The pressure gradient will increase by the weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds across the central basin. A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean is causing scattModerate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of these boundaries and east of 57W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered SE of Newfoundland, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of a line from the the western Canary Islands to the northern Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. ered showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean and Central America. The wave is forecast to move into the E Pacific waters tonight. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N76W to central Florida. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N40W and continues southwestward to 29N48W, where it becomes a surface trough, stretching southwestward to near Puerto Rico. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, generally prevail across the discussion waters. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging extending from high pressure over the NW Atlantic is contributing towards moderate or lighter winds across the region. A weak cold front is moving off the Florida coast, with tranquil conditions following it. The front will dissipate tonight while another front will emerge Thu. High pressure behind this front will tighten the pressure gradient across the region, bringing moderate to fresh winds across waters N of 20N. Moderate seas can also be expected with these winds. Conditions will slightly improve by early next week N of 27N. $$ AL