000 AXNT20 KNHC 301718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu May 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from 03N to 12N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 17W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 02N to 11N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds with isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind the wave axis from 03N to 08N between 34W and 39W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 65W/66W extending southward into central Venezuela where the wave is helping to induce some convective activity. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds with embedded scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are E of the wave axis, affecting the Windward Islands. A tropical wave is along 88W south of 19N. The wave axis extends across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and crosses Belize, Honduras and El Salvador. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Most of the convective activity related to this wave is currently noted over the eastern Pacific region. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 04N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 03N to 07N between 13W and 30W. Similar convective activity is seen S of 06N between 40W and 50W, and within 90-120 nm of the coast of South-America between 50W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters while a cold front is clipping N Florida and the Florida Panhandle generating some shower activity. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the north-central Gulf ahead of the front. As of 15Z, the cold front extends across central Florida and the NE Gulf to near SE Louisiana. Hazy conditions persist over the western Gulf due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh E to SE across the waters across the waters N of 24N and W of 92W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere west of 90W, while light to gentle winds are east of 90W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the western half of the Gulf, and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging will continue across the area into early next week. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the SW Caribbean, covering mainly the waters S of 14N and W of 75W. This activity is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and at the same time be accompanied by frequent lightning. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office for the latest information on this active weather. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity, that is now affecting the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua and the Atlantic coast of Costa Rica. Southwesterly flow aloft continues to transport abundant tropical moisture from Guatemala and Belize across the western Caribbean Sea reaching the Cayman Islands and eastern Cuba. The atmospheric environment will remain very unstable and conducive for locally heavy rain to affect some areas of the Greater Antilles and the SW Caribbean. Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due to persistent agricultural fires in Central America. The haze may be reducing the visibility to at times, especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere across the basin, except for light to gentle winds over the northwestern and north-central sections. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the south-central and SW parts of the basin, 3 to 5 ft S of 18N, and 1 to 3 ft N of 18N, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The pressure gradient will increase Sat behind a tropical wave that is currently exiting the Caribbean. This will lead to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin Sat through early Mon. Winds will slightly diminish by early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is E of Florida and extends from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the trough. Farther E, another area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is noted covering the waters from 25N to 28N between 70W and 75W. A second surface trough is analyzed from 28N52W to 21N60W. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of this trough, with light winds on either side of it. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough. A cold front has entered the forecast waters and extends from 31N30W to 28N35W to 29N52W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are associated with the frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds follow the front with seas of 5 to 7 ft. S of the front to about 20N, mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft based on altimeter data. Weak high pressure is present generally elsewhere across the basin with a 1021 mb center near 25N30W. Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades are observed on satellite derived wind data, with an area of fresh to locally strong N winds between Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of W Africa. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft over these waters. For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the forecast waters. A cold front pushing off the NE Florida coast will move across the western half of the area through Fri night, and across the remainder of the forecast waters N of 20N through late Mon. High pressure building in behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient across the region, bringing moderate to fresh winds across waters north of 20N. Moderate seas can also be expected with these winds. Conditions will slightly improve by early next week north of 27N. $$ GR