972 AXNT20 KNHC 302100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri May 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 22W from 02N to 12N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 20W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W from 02N to 11N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind the wave axis from 05N to 10N between 35W and 40W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis near 67W extending southward into central Venezuela where the wave is helping to induce some convective activity. It is moving westward at 15 kt. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and extends to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 05N40W, and from 04N43W to 04.5N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 12W and 20W, and from 04N to 08N between 25W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from central Florida to Louisiana. Gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 90W, with light to gentle winds E of 90W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range W of 90W and 1-2 ft E of 90W. Hazy conditions persist over the western Gulf due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico. For the forecast, the front will dissipate by Fri. Meanwhile, the relatively weak surface ridging across the basin will continue into early next week. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh in the western Gulf during the evenings through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the SW Caribbean, covering mainly the waters S of 14N and W of 75W. This activity is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and at the same time be accompanied by frequent lightning. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office for the latest information on this active weather. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity, that is now affecting the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua and the Atlantic coast of Costa Rica. Southwesterly flow aloft continues to transport abundant tropical moisture from Guatemala and Belize across the western Caribbean Sea reaching the Cayman Islands and eastern Cuba. The atmospheric environment will remain very unstable and conducive for locally heavy rain to affect some areas of the Greater Antilles and the SW Caribbean. Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due to persistent agricultural fires in Central America. The haze may be reducing the visibility to at times, especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. Fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere across the basin, except for light to gentle winds over the northwestern and north- central sections. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the south- central and SW parts of the basin, 3 to 5 ft S of 18N, and 1 to 3 ft N of 18N, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The pressure gradient will increase Sat behind a tropical wave that is currently exiting the Caribbean. This will lead to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin Sat through early Mon. Winds will slightly diminish by early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N74W to central Florida. Farther east, a second front extends from 31N26W to 28N46W. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to 21N60W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters N of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of 20N. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range N of 20N, and 4-6 ft S of 20N. For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the forecast waters. A cold front moving across Florida coast will press eastward, stretching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Fri night, then from 31N55W to the central Bahamas by Sun with the tail-end of the boundary stalling. High pressure building in behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient across the region, bringing moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across waters north of 20N. Conditions will slightly improve by early next week north of 27N. $$ AL