000 AXNT20 KNHC 310612 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri May 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 12N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 22W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 42W and 46W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from near the Mona Passage southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 14N to 16N between 66W and 69W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 07N18W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N18W through 05N30W to 07N41W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough and near the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 10W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection exist near the ITCZ from 04N to 07N between 26W and 34W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the waters adjacent to northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front is seen over the Florida Big Bend area. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh with locally strong E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate by Fri. Meanwhile, the modest surface ridging across the Gulf will continue into early next week. As a result, winds will pulse between moderate and fresh in the western Gulf during the evenings through the weekend, and also in the eastern Gulf Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and nighttime hours through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Aided by divergent winds aloft, convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore from northern Nicaragua, between Jamaica and western Cuba, and near Haiti. Refer to the Tropical Wave section for additional convection. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found at the south-central and southeastern basin, including waters near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere across the basin, except for light to gentle winds over the northwestern and north- central sections. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the south- central and SW parts of the basin, 3 to 5 ft S of 18N, and 1 to 3 ft N of 18N, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The pressure gradient will increase Sat behind a tropical wave that is currently exiting the Caribbean. This will lead to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin Sat through early Mon, along with seas to around 8 ft. Winds will slightly diminish by early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic to 30N27W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 28N50W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted up to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough runs southwestward from 30N52W to 21N59W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen 25N o 27N between 52W and 55W. Convergent southerly winds are generating similar convection from 27N to 29N between 64W and 73W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are evident north of 20N between 25W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to locally fresh N to NNE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist north of 15N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 25W and the Georgia/Florida coast, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are seen. Gentle with locally moderate monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the forecast waters. A cold front moving across the waters from 31N78W to 29N81W will press eastward, stretching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Fri evening, then from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas by Sun with the tail-end of the boundary stalling. High pressure building in behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient across the region, bringing moderate to fresh winds and across waters north of 20N, along with building seas. Conditions will slightly improve by early next week north of 27N.. $$ Chan