000 AXNT20 KNHC 020616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: Active tropical waves are going to provide increasing moisture across the central and western Caribbean Sea for the next several days. Meanwhile a persistent upper-level trough over western Cuba and southward will sustain divergent flow across the area through next Friday. Expect strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightnings, heavy rain and gusty winds near these locations through Friday. Heavy rain can cause flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas and hilly terrains where soil is already saturated by earlier rainfall. The heaviest rain is forecast from Tue to Fri. Residents living in these locations need to stay alert and listen to their local weather/emergency management offices for the latest information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 12N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 39W and 43W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is over Barbados near 58W from 15N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 55W and 60W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from near the Cayman Islands southward to central Panama, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 15N between 77W and 81W. Widely scattered moderate convection is near the Cayman Islands and Island of Youth. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 07N120W. An ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 07N20W to 06N39W and , then from 05N43W to 09N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the trough from 05N to 09N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 150 nm north, and up to 100 nm south of the ITCZ segments. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convergent southeasterly winds are joined forces with a mid-level trough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the modest ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the next several days, supporting generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf, except for locally strong winds pulsing near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days with reducing visibility at times. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a HEAVY RAIN EVENT. A surface trough over Jamaica and eastern Cuba is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the southwestern and south- central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen at the eastern and north-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin through early Mon, with seas building to around 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over portions of the western basin just over southern Jamaica adjacent waters as a tropical wave moves across the region through Sun afternoon. Inclement weather related to the tropical wave will gradually shift westward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N56W to 27N63W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N72W. Patchy showers are seen up to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds farther southwest of this boundary are triggering scattered moderate convection from 23N to 30N between 51W and 62W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of 22N between the cold/stationary front and the Florida/Georgia coast, including the northwest and central Bahamas. Mainly gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident north of 20N between 22W and the cold/stationary front. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate N to NNE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen north of 15N between the Africa coast and 22W/30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 22W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold/stationary front is expected to become entirely stationary along 25N by early Sun and weaken into a surface trough by Mon evening. Energy associated with a convectively active tropical wave, currently over the western Caribbean will lift north-northeastward and merge with this trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough will drift eastward and move into the central subtropical Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Fresh SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough as it crosses the northern offshore waters. $$ Chan