000 AXNT20 KNHC 030607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will sustain divergent flow across the area through Friday. This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. The greatest risk for large accumulations of rainfall is from Tuesday through Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Flooding is also possible in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. Please refer to products from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 16W and 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 09N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. There is no significant convection based on the latest analysis. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 47W and 49W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 17N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring over east-central Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 20N southward, and is quasi-stationary due to interaction with an upper-level trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near the Nicaragua coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then curves southwestward to 07N20W. An ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 06N31W, then from 05N34W to 07N47W and finally from 06N49W to near the Guyana coast. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 02N to the Liberia coast between 10W and 14W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 130 nm north of the ITCZ fragments. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters off the Panama coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge runs west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf for the next several days. This will support generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds east of 90W, except for locally strong winds pulsing near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, then pulsing to fresh in the evenings thereafter. By the end of the week, the ridge may weaken which should allow winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to 3 nm at times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a heavy rainfall event. A surface trough near the Windward Passage is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica, Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the southwestern and northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin through early Mon, with seas around 8 ft. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean will support scattered showers and tstms between the Windward Passage and the coast of Nicaragua, which are forecast to continue and amplify the next couple of days. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the eastern basin Mon night as another tropical wave moves by. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N48W, then continues as a stationary front to at 23N71W. A surface trough is also present over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Aided by divergent winds related to an upper-level trough over the Bahamas, scattered moderate convection is visible from 20N to 27N between 63W and 74W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 140 nm south of the cold front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found across the western Atlantic north of 20N between 57W and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic north of 20N between 25W and 57W, gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas exist. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate N to NNE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted north of 14N between the Africa coast and 25W. In the Tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate from 07N to 20N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold/stationary front will become fully stationary along 25N tonight, and weaken into a surface trough by Mon evening. Energy associated with a convectively active tropical wave, currently over the western Caribbean will lift NNE and merge with this trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough will drift eastward and move to the central subtropical Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Fresh to occasionally strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough as it crosses the north-central and then eastern offshore waters. Ridging will build across the basin Thu through Fri night. $$ Chan