529 AXNT20 KNHC 040607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday. This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. According to the most recent models, Tue afternoon and Thu afternoon will be the days with the most significant precipitation over north-central Dominican Republic and northeast Haiti. There are also indications that significant rainfall could occur over eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands where abundant moisture will remain in place. Please refer to products from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 21W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is near this wave on the latest analysis. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 12N southward to northern Venezuela, and moving west near 10 kt. No significant convection is near this wave on the latest analysis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican Republic southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola and near the coast of northern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near the Island of Youth in Cuba southward to Honduras and Nicaragua, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W then continues westward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 06N35W, then from 06N37W to 06N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 08N between 24W and 31W, and from 05N to 09N between 40W and 50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near central Panama, and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms off St. Petersburg, FL. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florid Straits. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf through the next several days. This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the northwestern Gulf, and gentle to moderate in the eastern Gulf. By Thu, the ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a heavy rainfall event. The southwestern end of a surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica. Fresh SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the central basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, pressure gradient across the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the east-central basin through early Tue, with seas to near 8 ft. A deep layered upper-level trough from the Western Atlantic to the southwestern basin will continue to support active thunderstorms across the north-central basin through Tue. As this feature moves east- northeastward across the Atlantic, associated weather will shift across the northeastern Caribbean Tue evening through Thu. Fresh trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu evening through early Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N42W to 26N51W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 24N69W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of the cold front. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection near and south of the stationary front from 19N to 26N between 57W and 71W, including the Turks and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident from 20N to 29N between 57W and 67W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NNE to SSE winds and 4 to 5 ft are found north of 20N between 25W30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen north of 15N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 19N/20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front will meander and weaken into a surface trough later tonight. A deep-layered upper trough across the western Atlantic and into the southwestern Caribbean will shift east-northeast across the region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms east of 74W tonight that will shift east and northeast Tue through Thu. The interaction of the upper trough and the stationary front/surface trough is expected cause an elongated surface low pressure to form near 26N60W on Tue, and shift northeastward and out of the area on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough/low as it move across these waters. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin Wed, then shift slowly east- northeast Thu through Fri night. Lastly, a weak front may exit the Georgia/northeastern Florida coast on Sat. $$ Chan