000 AXNT20 KNHC 040830 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday. This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. According to the most recent models, this afternoon and Thu afternoon will be the days with the most significant precipitation over north-central Dominican Republic and northeast Haiti. There are also indications that significant rainfall could occur over eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands where abundant moisture will remain in place. Please refer to products from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 12N southward to northern Venezuela, and moving west near 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from the Dominican Republic southward, and moving west at 10 kt. No deep convection is noted over water. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W/86W from near western Cuba southward to eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No deep convection is noted over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W then continues southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 06N36W, then from 05N39W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 12W and 52W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near eastern Panama, and northwestern Colombia, and from 11N to 14.5N between 80W and 83W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms near the outer coastal waters boundary off Florida. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, locally strong near Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist for the rest of the Gulf, except 2 to 4 ft in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the basin through the next several days. This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. By Thu, the ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a heavy rainfall event. A mid-level trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and east of Nicaragua. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the eastern basin. Moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the central basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the east-central Caribbean through early this morning, with seas to near 8 ft. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the SW Caribbean will continue to support active thunderstorms across north-central portions through today. As this feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated weather will shift across the NE Caribbean this evening through Thu. Fresh trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu evening through early Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N41W to 26N50W, then continues westward as a stationary front through 24N64W to 26N76W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 60 nm along either side of the cold front. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection from 19N to 31N between 55W and 65W, and from 20N to 27N between 65W and 72W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident from 19N to 30N between 57W and 68W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 30W, along with seas of mainly 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas are south of 20N and west of 30W, with moderate winds east of 30W, except moderate to fresh north of 13N between Africa and the Canary islands to the Cabo Verde Islands where seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front will meander and weaken into a surface trough later today. A deep- layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and into the SW Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and 72W, that will shift E and NE Tue through Thu. The interaction of the upper trough and the stationary front/surface trough is expected to lead to elongated surface low pressure across NE portions later today, and shift NE and out of the area on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough/low as it move across these waters. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin Wed then shift slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front may drop into the NW waters Sat. $$ Lewitsky