227 AXNT20 KNHC 050421 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 05 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A deep-layered upper trough extending across the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will aid in strengthening of a low pressure currently located near 30N53W. This system will move NE and exit the forecast waters Wed morning. Strong to minimal gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of this low pres tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 11 ft within these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday. This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. Latest model guidance indicates that the most significant precipitation are expected over north-central Dominican Republic. There are also indications that significant rainfall could occur over parts of east and central Cuba where abundant moisture will linger through the rest of the work-week. The rainfall over Hispaniola and Cuba will be heavily influenced by diurnal heating and the local and effects. As a result, the heaviest rainfall will occur in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Please refer to products from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 25W and 32W. A second tropical wave is near 40W from 10N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 02N to 06N between 38W and 43W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 13N southward to Suriname, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave axis from 05N to 09N between 48W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W then continues southwestward to 08N20W. The ITCZ is divided into three fragments, from 08N20W to 06N26W, from 05N31 to 04N38W, and from 05N43W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection can be found from 09N to 11N between the west coast of Africa and 24W The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over parts of Panama and regional waters, particularly S of 12N between 76W and 82W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1016 mb located near 31.5N70W extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is resulting in moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft W of 90W , and gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas E of 90W. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico persist across most of the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, where medium concentration of smoke is noted on the smoke graphic recently issued by SAB. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several days. This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh SE to S winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through late Wed. By Thu, the ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the weekend. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a heavy rainfall event. As previously mentioned, a persistent upper-level trough is helping to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba, including also the Windward Passage and the regional waters between Haiti and Jamaica. Recent scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong winds within the area of the strongest convection. The most recent scatterometer data indicate moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Caribbean where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are observed with seas of 3 to 6ft over the central part of the basin, and 1 to 3 ft over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western Atlantic. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the W Caribbean will continue to support active thunderstorms across north-central portions through this evening. As this feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated weather will shift across the NE Caribbean this evening through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu through Fri then shift into south central portions through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic. Please read the Special Features section above for more information. A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N36.5W then continues westward to near 27N43W, where it begins to dissipate. A surface trough extends from 28N48W to a 1008 mb low pressure located near 30N53W to 30N55W to 25N61W to near the Windward Passage. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is S and E of the trough affecting mainly the waters N of 19N and W of 56W to the trough axis. Recent scatterometer data revealed fresh to near-gale force winds from 21.5N to 24N between 60.5W and 62W in association with this trough. Divergent flow aloft is supporting this convective activity. High pressure of 1016 mb located near 31.5N70W dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic W of the above mentioned trough. Another 1022 mb high pressure system located over the central Atlantic is in control of the weather pattern across the rest of the forecast waters. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted E of 56W while moderate to fresh trades are blowing across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure near 30N53W to 30N55W to 25N61W to near the Windward Passage. A deep-layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and 70W, that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. The feature will also aid in strengthening of the low pressure, which will move NE and exit the area waters Wed morning. Strong to near gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of this low pres this evening as it moves across the NE waters. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin Wed then shift slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front will move into the far NW waters Sat and stall there Sun. $$ KRV