252 AXNT20 KNHC 051805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1805 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA, IN JAMAICA, AND IN EASTERN CUBA: A persistent western Caribbean Sea upper level trough will continue to support the significant rainshowers through Friday. The threats to land are: dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds, through Friday. It is possible that heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from earlier recent heavy rain events. Global models show that the most significant precipitation will be in the north central sections of the Dominican Republic. It is possible also that significant rainfall may reach eastern Cuba, and central Cuba, where abundant moisture will be for the next few days. The rainfall for Hispaniola and Cuba will be influenced heavily by diurnal heating and the local effects. The heaviest rainfall will occur in the afternoon and evening hours on each day. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather bureau office for more detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 11N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: any close precipitation is related to the monsoon trough or to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 11N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: any close precipitation is related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 14N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. The wave was re-positioned in order to agree with the Total Precipitable Water data. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 12N between 61W and 63W, mostly inland in Venezuela. Similar precipitation is in Guyana from 04N to 08N between 58W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N20W and 06N30W. The ITCZ is along 05N31W 04N41W, and along 03N/04N between 44W and 50W. Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1017 mb 31N72W high pressure center, into the central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds, locally strong, and moderate seas, are west of 89W. Gentle to moderate winds, and 1 foot to 3 feet seas, are elsewhere. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico persist in most of the western Gulf. It is possible that the haze may reduce visibilities to 1 to 3 nm, particularly in the SW and west central Gulf. Moderate seas are in the western half of the area. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet in the Texas coastal waters. Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are from 90W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several days. This pattern will support generally moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through early Thu. On Thu, the ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the weekend. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 1 to 3 nm at times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the heavy rainfall event in Hispaniola, in Jamaica, and in the eastern sections of Cuba. Cyclonic wind flow is covering much of the area that is from 16N/ 17N northward, with a persistent and deep layer trough. A surface trough currently is in the Windward Passage. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the area of the deep layer cyclonic wind flow. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are in the NE half of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are in the rest of the area. Mostly moderate to slightly rough seas are between 64W and 73W. Mostly moderate to some slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.75 in Trinidad; 0.64 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.27 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.26 in Guadeloupe; 0.14 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras; 0.11 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.02 in Nassau in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The monsoon trough is along 12N70W near NW Venezuela, beyond NE Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong is 15N southward from 70W westward. Weak high pressure extends across the western Atlantic along 31N. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across the Atlantic, with associated showers and thunderstorms shifting from the north- central basin across the NE Caribbean through Thu. Southeast trade winds generally prevail across the entire basin today. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu through Fri then shift into south central portions through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N31W to 29N36W 30N40W. A warm front continues from 30N40W to a 1009 mb 32N51W low pressure center. A surface trough continues from the 1009 mb low pressure center, to a 1013 mb 26N59W low pressure center, to 21N70W, to the Windward Passage. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 17N northward, including in the Caribbean Sea, between 43W in the Atlantic Ocean to 77W in the Atlantic Ocean near the Bahamas. Mostly moderate seas cover the entire area in general. The comparatively highest sea heights, range from 4 feet to 6 feet. Some smaller areas of sea heights of 4 feet or less are mixed into the areas of predominantly moderate seas. Fresh NE winds are to the southeast of 26N21W 20N36W 19N60W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are between 60W and 70W, to the south of the 28N60W 25N70W-Windward Passage surface trough. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A frontal trough extends from 27.5N55W to near the Windward Passage. A deep-layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and into the north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and 70W that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. Expect fresh to strong SW winds east of the trough and N of 22N through late afternoon. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin in the wake of the trough, then shift slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front will move into the far NW waters Sat and stall there Sun. $$ mt/ss