000 AXNT20 KNHC 070520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow aloft and ample tropical moisture surging northward continues to generate a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. The storm activity can produce dangerous lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. The soils remain saturated, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. The rainfall for Hispaniola and Cuba will be influenced heavily by daytime heating, the local sea breezes, and the mountain upslope lifting. Mariners should use caution due to the reduced visibilities in heavy rain, frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds near gale force during the strongest storms and suddenly higher seas. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather forecast office for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 11N, and moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 37W and 46W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 11N, and moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N and between 47W and 51W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 06N38W, then from 06N40W to 07N48W and then from 07N50W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 11N and east of 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure system in the central Atlantic extends weakly into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining generally dry conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Hazy skies continue across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central America. Reduced visibilities are noted across coastal observation sites in the western and southern Gulf. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will support mainly gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola. The aforementioned ridge over the central Atlantic dominates the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 16N and east of 71W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. In the rest of the central, eastern and NW Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the SW Caribbean. Hazy skies continue in the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires in western Central America. However, conditions have improved during the last few days. For the forecast, a deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to Puerto Rico will shift E-NE across the Atlantic, with associated showers and thunderstorms shifting from the north- central basin across the NE Caribbean and into the Atlantic through tonight. A second upper trough from Florida to the NW Caribbean will support active thunderstorms across the NW basin through the weekend. A center of high pressure located SE of Bermuda with associated ridge extending across the E Caribbean will continue to support fresh to locally strong trade winds over the SE basin through Fri. These winds will gradually shift across the south-central Caribbean through the weekend as high pressure continues to build across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and ample tropical moisture result in moderate scattered to isolated strong convection south of 27N and west of 70W. The strongest storms are affecting the SE Bahamas and surrounding waters. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure system centered over the central Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 3-4 ft are occurring off NE Florida. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Farther east, a 1015 mb low pressure is located near 29N45W and a cold front extends from the low to 24N51W, followed by a surface trough to 21N61W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring east of these features to 35W and north of 25N. Seas are 4-7 ft in the area described. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are noted south of 20N and west of 30W due to the pressure gradient between the broad ridge to the north and lower pressures in the ITCZ. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. A cold front is crossing the Canary Islands in the NE Atlantic, but no significant convection is noted near the boundary. Moderate N-NE winds and seas of 4-5 ft are evident behind the front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present from 15N to 23N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a deep-layered upper trough across the W Atlantic extending from near Bermuda to Puerto Rico will shift E-NE across the region through Fri, maintaining active thunderstorms E of the upper trough. A second upper trough from Florida to the NW Caribbean will support active thunderstorms from central Cuba northeastward across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic S of 25N through Fri, then shift slowly eastward over the weekend. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin tonight, then shift slowly E-NE through the weekend. A weak front will move into the far NW waters Sat and stall there then lift north of the area Sun. $$ Delgado