000 AXNT20 KNHC 071050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow aloft and ample tropical moisture surging northward continues to generate a large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting the Gulf of Honduras, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, rough seas, gusty winds and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions. The soils remain saturated, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. The rainfall for Hispaniola and Cuba will be influenced heavily by daytime heating, the local sea breezes, and the mountain upslope lifting. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather forecast office for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 12N with axis near 40W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 11N and between 35W and 45W. A tropical wave is just E of Brazil, extending from 01N to 11N with axis near 50W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N and between 45W and 57W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 14N with axis near 71W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in the Caribbean Sea associated with it. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 07N39W, then from 07N51W to 08N49W, then from 07N51W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 10N between 11W and 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin between weak surface ridging extending SW across Florida and the Straits, and lower pressures over Mexico and the western Gulf. This pattern is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas this morning. Otherwise, hazy skies continue across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central America. Reduced visibilities are noted across coastal observation sites in the western and southern Gulf. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will support mainly gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and lower pressures in northern South America result in moderate to fresh SE winds across the eastern, central and NW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are slight to moderate with the highest seas being in the central and eastern portions of the basin. For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough extending from the E Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will shift E-NE across the Atlantic through the weekend, wich will allow the continuation of showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola through the weekend. A second trough aloft may extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean through early next week. High pressure located SE of Bermuda and associated ridge extending across the NE Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing at night tonight and Sat night. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluent flow and ample tropical moisture are supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms affecting the Bahamas and its offshore waters as well as the Great Bahama Bank. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a 1019 mb high centered SE of Bermuda, which is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds, except in the areas of strong tstms. Farther east, a 1015 mb low pressure is located near 30N43W and a cold front extends from the low to 23N54W, followed by a surface trough that extends to Puerto Rico adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring east of these features to 35W and north of 25N. Seas are 4-7 ft in the area described. A cold front is crossing the Canary Islands in the NE Atlantic, but no significant convection is noted near the boundary. Moderate N-NE winds and seas of 4-5 ft are evident behind the front. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the middle to upper level trough extending from the E Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will continue to support showers and tstms across the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through the weekend in response to a weak front that will move into the far NW waters Sat before stalling there and lifting north of the area Sun. $$ Ramos