000 AXNT20 KNHC 072313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow aloft and abundant tropical moisture surging northward continues to generate a large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting the Gulf of Honduras, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, rough seas, gusty winds and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions. The soils remain saturated, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, analyzed with axis along 32W and S of 11N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 12N with axis near 43W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N and between 40W and 50W. A tropical wave is just E of Brazil, extending from 01N to 11N with axis near 52W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the axis. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 14N with axis near 75W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in the Caribbean Sea associated with it. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 09N between 34W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin between weak surface ridging extending SW across Florida and the Straits, and lower pressures over Mexico and the western Gulf. This pattern is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas. Hazy skies continue across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central America. Reduced visibilities are noted across coastal observation sites in the western and southern Gulf. For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and lower pressures in northern South America result in moderate to fresh SE winds across the eastern, central and NW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are slight to moderate with the highest seas being in the central and eastern portions of the basin. For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough extending from the E Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will shift E-NE across the Atlantic through the weekend, which will support showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola through the weekend. A second upper level trough may extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight and Sat night. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluent flow and abundant tropical moisture are supporting scattered moderate convection over Bahamas and the W Atlantic W of 63W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1020 mb high centered SE of Bermuda, which is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds, except in the areas of strong tstms. Farther east, a cold front extends from a low N of the area near 32N38W to 25N46W then becomes a trough to 24N57W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring east of these features to 35W and north of 27N. Seas are 4-7 ft in the area described. A 1012 mb low pres is near the Canary Islands in the NE Atlantic, but no significant convection is noted near the boundary. Moderate N-NE winds and seas of 4-5 ft are evident behind the front. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the deep layer trough will continue to support showers and tstms across the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through the weekend enabling a weak frontal boundary to move into the far NW waters Sat. The front will stall and lift north of the area Sun as high pressure builds back in across the area. $$ ERA