000 AXNT20 KNHC 081707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Diffluent flow aloft and abundant tropical moisture surging northeastward continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, including Cuba and adjacent waters. Dangerous lightning, rough seas, gusty winds and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions. Scattered moderate convection is currently from 18N to 22N between 77W and 84W. In Trinidad, Cuba, 3 inches of rain was reported in the last 24 hours. The soils remain saturated over the Greater Antilles, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 11N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 38W and 45W. An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is along 59W, from 14N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 56W and 61W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, from 14N southward, moving west at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ then extends from 06N23W to 07N37W, with a second segment from 06N44W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A benign stationary front is along the Florida Panhandle in the far NE Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface trough is just offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail across the Gulf, under a relaxed pressure gradient. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean and a description of ongoing convection. The pressure gradient between subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela is supporting fresh to locally strong trades in the central Caribbean, with 5-7 ft seas. Satellite altimeter data from earlier this morning indicates that seas may locally reach 8 ft. In the eastern and western Caribbean, trades are moderate to locally fresh, with 3-5 ft seas. Winds may be higher in Atlantic passages between the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers and thunderstorms through the weekend across the NW Caribbean, including Cuba and the Windward Passage. A second upper level trough may extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight as well as Mon through Wed nights. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 25N between 65W and 69W. A frontal boundary extends from 31N32W to 22N52W. No significant winds or seas are noted near the front. Weather across the tropical Atlantic is guided by 1023 mb and 1022 mb high pressures, each centered along 30N. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. Winds may be higher in Atlantic passages between the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support showers and tstms across the SE Florida Seaboard, the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through the remainder weekend enabling a weak frontal boundary to move into the far NW waters today. The front will stall and lift north of the area Sun as high pressure builds back in across the area. $$ Mahoney