000 AXNT20 KNHC 090409 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant tropical moisture surging northeastward combined with a diffluent pattern aloft continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, including Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and regional waters. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions. Currently, numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed from the Gulf of Honduras to the waters between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The soils remain saturated over the Greater Antilles, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast offices for detailed information. Looking ahead, weather conditions are expected to favor additional heavy rainfall next week, with the heaviest rains likely impacting western Cuba and Florida. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 44W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and between 42W and 49W. A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea along 62W, south of 14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is noted in the SE Caribbean. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea along 77W, south of 14N, and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near the wave axis over NW Colombia and eastern Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 06N31W and to 05N43W and then from 05N45W to 08N59W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 11N and east 37W. Similar convection seen from 05N to 11N and between 49W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Hazy conditions persist in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche waters due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central America. Observation sites continue to report lower visibilities along the Bay of Campeche coast. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are forecast to develop over the E half of the basin Wed night into Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens between surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic and a developing low over the central Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through Sun evening, including Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. A second upper level trough is forecast to amplify and extend this shower and tstms activity over the NW Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight as well as Mon through Wed nights. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic. A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic dominates the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted from 15N to 22N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support showers and tstms over the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun evening. A stationary front along northern Florida will approach the far NW waters Sun and then lift north of the area Mon evening as high pressure builds back in across the area. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters Sun evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the subtropical ridge and the front. These winds will continue to affect the offshore waters N of 27N W of 65W through Wed morning as a cold front moves across the waters N of the area Tue morning before lifting farther north Wed morning. $$ Delgado