000 AXNT20 KNHC 091106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant tropical moisture surging northeastward combined with a trough aloft continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, and portions of the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing over the NW Caribbean and in the vicinity of Andros Island. Saturated soils over the Greater Antilles may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through mid week in the NW Caribbean, with the heaviest rains likely impacting western Cuba and Florida. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 46W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 11N between 44W and 52W. A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean Sea along 63W, south of 14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are ongoing in its vicinity. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean Sea along 78W, south of 14N, and moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is S of 13N between 75W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 09N17W. The ITCZ extends from 09N17W to 05N30W to 06N45W and then from 06N47W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave over the central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N between 15W and 25W, and from 06N to 12N between 51W and 59W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 28W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the NE Gulf while lower pressures dominate the western half of the basin with a surface trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds are associated with this trough over the E Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE winds dominate elsewhere along with slight seas. Otherwise, hazy conditions persist in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche waters due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central America. Observation sites continue to report reduced visibilities along the Bay of Campeche coast. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are forecast to develop over the E half of the basin Thu into Fri as the pressure gradient tightens between surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic and a developing surface trough that will extend from the E Bay of Campeche to the Tampa Bay adjacent waters. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends into the E Caribbean Sea with associated pressure gradient resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through this evening, including Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. A second upper level trough is forecast to amplify and extend this shower and tstms activity over the NW Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing at night through Thu. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic. Surface ridging centered over the central Atlantic dominates the subtropical and portion of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support showers and tstms over the Bahamas offshore waters through this evening. A stationary front along northern Florida will approach the far NW waters today and then lift north of the area Mon evening as high pressure builds back in across the area. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters this evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the subtropical ridge and the front. These winds will continue to affect the offshore waters N of 27N W of 65W through Wed morning as a cold front moves across the waters N of the area Tue morning before lifting farther north on Wed. $$ Ramos