000 AXNT20 KNHC 091646 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant tropical moisture surging northeastward combined with a trough aloft continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, and portions of the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing over the NW Caribbean and in the vicinity of Andros Island. Saturated soils over the Greater Antilles may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through mid week in the NW Caribbean, with the heaviest rains likely impacting western Cuba and Florida. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 48W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 42W and 55W. A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean Sea along 65W, south of 12N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are inland across central Venezuela. A tropical wave is stalled in the SW Caribbean Sea along 78W, south of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 75W and 83W, including coastal regions of Panama and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... Satellite scatterometer data received this morning indicates that no segments of the Monsoon Trough are over the Atlantic Ocean. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N45W. A second segment of ITCZ is from 07N51W to the coast of far NE Venezuela near 09N61W. In addition to convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... 1015 mb high pressure centered in the north-central Gulf provides for light to gentle SE winds across the waters, with 1-3 ft seas. Observations along the coast of Mexico indicate reduced visibilities to 4 nm due to smoke from ongoing agricultural fires. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are forecast to develop over the E half of the basin the end of next week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico may continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. Scatterometer data this morning captured ongoing moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean, where 5-8 ft seas are analyzed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail in the eastern and western Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 19N west of 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras and coastal regions of Honduras, Belize, and Quintana Roo, Mexico. For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through this evening, including Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing at night through Thu. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic. Surface ridging centered over the central Atlantic provides for a relaxed pressure gradient across the basin. Gentle to moderate trades are south of 20N, with light and variable winds north of 20N. Seas are 4-7 ft across the tropical Atlantic, with highest seas south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Bahamas. A few showers are likely ongoing along a weak stationary front from 31N28W to 22N50W. For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge of high pressure will prevail roughly along 25N through Thu. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters this evening through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis. $$ Mahoney