000 AXNT20 KNHC 092315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant tropical moisture surging northward combined with a persistent mid to upper level trough, now extending over the NW Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, continues to generate a large area of showers and thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective activity over these areas, including also Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Cuba continues to report locally heavy rain. Saturated soils over the Greater Antilles may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through at least mid week in the NW Caribbean, with the heaviest rains likely impacting western Cuba and Florida. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 49W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis and mainly N of 07N. A tropical wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt across the SE Caribbean with axis along 66W, south of 12N. The wave is enhancing convection over parts of Venezuela. A tropical wave is moving slowly across the SW Caribbean. its axis is along 78W, south of 14N. The wave, combined with EPAC monsoon trough, is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean, including coastal regions from Colombia to Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N30W to 06N45W to 09N60W. In addition to convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is within about 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 06N to 10N between 40W and 47W, and from 06N to 11N between 52W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1015 mb high pressure located near SE Louisiana. Under the influence of this system, mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Medium concentration of smoke, due to ongoing agricultural fires, persists over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche creating hazy conditions. Observations along the coast of Mexico indicate reduced visibilities of 4 nm or less. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin toward the end of the week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin, except in the SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras where mainly light and variable winds are noted. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere with the exception of the SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Low-topped trade wind showers are over the eastern Caribbean while convection continues to flare-up W of 80W. For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through this evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic. A band of multilayer clouds, with possible embedded showers, extends from the Bahamas eastward across the Atlantic waters from 20N and 30N and all the way to near the Canary Islands. Strong westerly winds aloft are transporting this cloudiness. High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with the main center of 1021 mb located near 32N45W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen under the influence of this system N of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are blowing between the W coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas there are in the 4 to 6 ft range. S of 20N, gentle to moderate trade winds are observed with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A stationary front runs from 31N27W to 22N50W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge will prevail roughly along 25N through Thu, then gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters this evening through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis. $$ GR