000 AXNT20 KNHC 110409 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico: Abundant tropical moisture surging northward across the western Caribbean, combined with middle to upper-level diffluent flow continues to support the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea (west of 77W) and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective activity over these areas. This convection will amplify as it shifts across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits through at least Thu. Mariners should exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 23N, south of 17N, and moving westward at around 10 kt. A few showers are noted where the trough axis and monsoon trough interact. The northern half of the wave is devoid of deep convection due to dry Saharan air. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 60W, south of 12N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the trough axis. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea along 72W, south of 13N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is evident in the Caribbean waters in association with this wave. A tropical wave is moving across Central America. The trough axis is along 84, south of 16N, and moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 04N40W and to 08N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 08N and between 23W and 39W. Similar convection is seen south of 11N and west of 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N85W to northern Yucatan. Divergence aloft and surging tropical moisture result in scattered showers east of the aforementioned surface trough. While broad low pressures dominate the Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure north of the Leeward Islands and the surface trough sustain moderate to fresh southerly winds south of 27N and east of 86W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong winds in association with the strongest convection. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate and slight seas prevail. Light concentration of smoke continue over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires, creating hazy conditions. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop tonight over the SE basin being enhanced by an amplifying area of convection moving to the region from the NW Caribbean. These enhanced winds will continue through Wed to the SE of a weak surface trough. By Fri night, moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin, increasing to strong speeds Sat into Sat night. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. A 1030 mb high pressure system just north of the Azores extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong E-SE winds over much of the basin. The strongest winds are occurring in the south-central Caribbean as depicted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. However, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the SW Caribbean and Windward Passage. Outside of the NW Caribbean, isolated thunderstorms are noted off NW Colombia and scattered showers off Panama. In the remainder of the basin, a dry airmass continues to suppress the development of deep convection. For the forecast, a scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the NW Caribbean through Tue. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to locally strong winds at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the waters off NE Florida. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and a stationary front off the SE United States support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds north of 26N and west of 65W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also indicated moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft south of 24N and west of 65W. Farther east, a 1018 mb low pressure is located near 28N56W along a surface trough that extends from 25N55W to 30N60W. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found on the north side of the trough. A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N27W to 24N38W and 22N53W. A surface showers are seen near this boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure system just north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring south of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are evident in the eastern Atlantic, from 15N to 27N and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure and associated ridging will prevail across the region through Thu, then gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will continue through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of 29N between 74W and 80W tonight and Tue evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis. $$ Delgado