000 AXNT20 KNHC 130550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico, in South Florida, and in the western Atlantic Ocean: Numerous strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between Andros Island in the Bahamas and 82W in the Gulf of Mexico. This area includes: south Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba between 78W and 82W. Some fresh to strong winds in the areas of precipitation are from 26N southward from 83W eastward. Gentle winds are in the rest of the area that is from 90W eastward. Moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 90W westward. Slight seas are everywhere. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm on either side of the line that is from the Florida Straits to 31N72W. Scattered strong is in the Caribbean Sea from 18N to 21N between 79W and 80W. A surface trough is along 31N78W, to a 1010 Florida 28.5N81W low pressure center, to the north central Yucatan Peninsula. Numerous strong rainshowers cover the Yucatan Peninsula. Other rainshowers are in the remainder of the area that is from 26N southward from 88W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate rainshowers are from 24N northward between 60W and 70W. Cloud to surface lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas, and low visibility are ongoing within the areas of precipitation. The rainshowers are forecast to continue through Friday. Mariners who are transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for specific local information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 13N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N southward between 20W and 33W, and close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 14N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01S to 04N between 40W and 47W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is 72W/73W, from 13N southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong is inland, within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N to 15N between 79W and the coast of NE Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Senegal, to 10N26W. The ITCZ is along 09N29W, 08N35W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 07N to 10N between 12W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 10N to 10N to 16N between 46W and 62W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the heavy rainfall that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front is along 29N/30N, between north Florida and the Texas coast. Hazy conditions have been in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, with the ongoing Mexico agricultural fires. An elongated area of low pressure over the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite strong upper-level winds, some gradual development is possible while the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of days. The showers and thunderstorms will be numerous in coverage and contain gusty winds and frequent lightning at times over the southeastern Gulf through at least Fri, and while a trough lingers over the eastern and central Gulf. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form this weekend over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system early next week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Increasing winds and building seas are expected with this system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An inland NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through 20N101W in Mexico, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the northern half of Guatemala. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 74W and 78W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are from 18N southward between 66W and 78W. Gentle winds are from 14N southward from 77W westward. Moderate SE winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are within 120 nm of the coast of NE Nicaragua. Moderate to rough seas are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure located NE of the area combined with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Thu night. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected over the northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of low pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through the rest of the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists across the region. Looking ahead, expect increasing winds and building seas over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, over the upcoming weekend as a broad area of low pressure possibly forms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the heavy rainfall that is in western Atlantic Ocean. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 31N60W 26N59W 22N57W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 21N to 25N between 49W and 57W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 30N42W 23N47W 16N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N northward between 35W and 47W. Strong NE winds are from 19N to 24N from 23W eastward. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are within 100 nm to the north of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W. Moderate NE winds are from 23N northward from 25W eastward. Moderate NE to E winds are from 17N to 25N between 25W and 36W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are from 25N northward between 25W and 40W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 16N northward from 30W eastward. Slight seas are from 18N to 24N between 54W and 70W, and elsewhere from 70W westward. Moderate seas, of 6 feet or lower, are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. An elongated area of low pressure over the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite strong upper-level winds, some gradual development is possible while the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of days. The showers and thunderstorms will be numerous in coverage and contain gusty winds and frequent lightning at times over most of the western part of the forecast waters, mainly W of a line from 31N65W to 26N71W to 23N78W. Expect for little change with this convective activity through at least Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the western Atlantic ahead of this system during the next couple of days. High pressure will build S over the western Atlantic beginning this weekend and into early next week. $$ mt/ja