000 AXNT20 KNHC 190445 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone One: At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft within 420 nm NE and 390 nm NW quadrants. The broad wind field associated with this disturbance is generating tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 360 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Scattered convection is being observed near the center of the system. In additions, the latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection confined to the Bay of Campeche. An area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW Gulf and over the western portion of the central Gulf from 23N to 27N between 91W and 96W. Similar convection shifting northwestward is seen from 22N to 28N between 85W and 91W. In addition, heavy rain is impacting portions of southern Mexico and the northern portions of Central America. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thu. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. The system is forecast to turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico by Wednesday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 20W from 02N to 19N. The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 118N between the coast of Africa and 19W, and from 04N to 12N between 21W and 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36.5W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry airmass that is suppressing the shower activity near the axis. A western Atlantic tropical wave was introduced in the 00Z surface analysis along 52W south of 15.5N based on tropical wave diagnostics. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with the wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71.5W south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic near 16.5N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to 07N50W and from 08N53.5W to 9.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 09N between 42W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is the main feature over the basin. Aside from convection described above related to Potential Tropical Cyclone One, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 22N between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast section of the Yucatan Peninsula. Aside from the area of 35 kt winds, strong to near-gale force winds cover much of the waters W of 87W, with fresh to strong winds east of 87W. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas discussed above, seas of 8 to 12 ft cover most of the waters north of 21N and west of 84W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 22.5N 93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. One will move to 22.7N 94.4W Wed morning, 22.8N 96.3W Wed evening, then inland to 22.9N 98.5W Thu morning. Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northwestward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone One and related impacts. The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One is resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean and over portions of the central part of the sea. The activity over the northwestern Caribbean reaches the Yucatan Channel. The broad wind field around Potential Tropical Cyclone One is supporting fresh to strong southeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean, especially west of 81W. Stronger gusts are possible with the strongest convection. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the broad circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One will continue to support fresh to strong SE winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds by Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough is analyzed from near 30N80W to central Florida. No significant convection is depicted in association with the trough. Farther east, a cold front enters our waters near 31N50.5W and extends southwestward to 29N54W where the front becomes stationary and extends to 28N58W, then a trough continues to a 1014 mb low near 26N65W. The trough then extends from the low to just north of the Dominican Republic at 21N69.5W. Satellite imagery shows numerous showers and thunderstorms from 19N to 25N between 59W and 65W. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Similar convection is depicted from 19N to 22N between 66W and 71W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are found north of 26N west of 58W. Seas within this winds are 6 to 9 ft. Over the far eastern part of the area, a surface trough extends from 29N10W through the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are found between the trough and the Cape Verde Islands along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by broad ridging, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure system in the far northeastern Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the northwest Atlantic is maintaining moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds north of the monsoon trough to 22N and east of 41W. Seas over the area described are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of a surface trough/low pres system analyzed from 28N58W to 21N68W. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States on Thursday. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail across the waters N of 25N through Thu. $$ KRV