000 AXNT20 KNHC 201722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall earlier this morning near Tampico, Mexico. It was downgraded to a tropical depression at 20/1500 UTC. At this time, Alberto is centered near 22.3N 99.4W or 80 nm W of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 16 kt. This motion is expected to continue through today, as Alberto moves farther inland over Mexico. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Alberto is expected to continue weakening as it moves inland, and the system is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today. Heavy rains and flash flooding continue in NE Mexico. Satellite imagery depicts deep convection producing heavy rainfall over the higher terrain in Mexico. Rainfall associated with Alberto is expected to begin to diminish across southern Texas today, with additional rainfall totals generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected. Maximum rainfall totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office, and read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Alberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Invest Area (AL92): A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A 1014 mb low is analyzed near 27.5N74.5W on the 1200 UTC surface map. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly in the northern semicircle of the low center. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression while the low moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. PLease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: Strong high pressure north of the Azores will shift southeastward through late Fri. A tightening of the pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in West Africa will support gale-force (Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts for the marine zone of AGADIR from June 20/12Z to at least June 21/12Z according to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas warning issued at 0735 UTC today. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France for more details at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 06N to 09N between 27W and 33W. The axis of another tropical wave is near 46W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 43W and 51W. The third tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is near 60W south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N to 10N between 55W and 61W. A few showers are noted over the Trinidad and Tobago Islands as well as over northern Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues westward to 09N23W. The ITCZ continues from 09N23W to 09N40W to 07N50W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 08N E of 21W to the W coast of Africa. This convective activity is affecting the coastal waters of Liberia and southern Sierra Leone. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Alberto, the first tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season, is now a tropical depression moving farther inland Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Aside from impacts discussed above, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered N of Bermuda near 37N65W and Tropical Depression Alberto is supporting strong to near gale-force E to SE winds over the Gulf waters west of 90W, with fresh to locally strong E winds east of 90W. Latest buoy observations and an altimeter pass show seas in the range of 8 to 13 ft north 22N and west of 90W. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft E of 90W and in the Bay of Campeche. Bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the western Gulf mainly S of 26N and W of 94W. Convection is on increase over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Alberto is near 22.3N 99.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Alberto will become a remnant low and move to 22.1N 102.7W this evening, and dissipate Fri morning. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the NW Caribbean W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted within the latter winds. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail, except over the SW Caribbean where winds are mainly gentle with seas in the 2 to 4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed over the Caribbean waters W of 73W, more concentrated near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras, including Belize and northern Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas on Sat morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail through Mon night, except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon night, pulsing to strong speeds at night over the south-central basin through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb low pressure (Invest-AL92) is centered E of Florida near 27.5N74.5W. This system has the potential of tropical cyclone formation. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The pressure gradient between the Invest Area and a 1029 mb high pressure located N of Bermuda is producing an area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the low center and W of 70W. A couple of altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft within these winds. A stationary front extends 31N50W to 28N60W to 30N67W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the front and mainly N of 24N between 42W and 60W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W where seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere, except reaching strong speeds off the coast of Africa N of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will prevail across the waters N of 28N through early Fri. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate winds through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank this evening through Sat night. $$ GR