000 AXNT20 KNHC 202227 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Remnants of Alberto is centered near 22.3N 102.0W at 20/2100 UTC or 230 nm W of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The remnants are expected to continue moving W through tonight. Scattered moderate convection continues across the Bay of Campeche but most of the heavy rainfall associated with the Alberto Remnants is occurring over Mexico and Texas. Rainfall associated with Alberto will continue to diminish across southern Texas tonight, with additional rainfall totals generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected. Maximum rainfall totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast but will begin to subside through tonight. Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office, and read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Alberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Invest Area (AL92): Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Friday morning, if necessary.This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days. PLease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: Strong high pressure north of the Azores will shift southeastward through late Fri. A tightening of the pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in West Africa will support gale-force (Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts for the marine zone of AGADIR from June 20/18Z to at least June 21/12Z according to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas warning issued at 1845 UTC today. Expect rough seas with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France for more details at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 15N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 06N to 14N between 31W and 34W. The axis of another tropical wave is near 47W from 16N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W. The third tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is near 62W from 16N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis from 09N to 12N between 60W and 63W, including over northeast Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 09N31W to 10N35W to 08N46W to 08N49W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 21W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Remnants of Alberto. Aside from impacts discussed above, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered N of Bermuda near 37N65W and the Remnants of Alberto is supporting strong to near gale- force E to SE winds over the Gulf waters west of 87W, with fresh to locally strong E winds east of 87W. Latest buoy observations show seas in the range of 8 to 12 ft north 20N and west of 90W. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft E of 90W and in the Bay of Campeche. Bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the western Gulf mainly S of 23N and W of 90W. Convection is on increase over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, Remnants Of Alberto are near 22.3N 102.0W at 5 PM EDT, and are moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Alberto will dissipate Fri morning. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Earlier satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the NW Caribbean W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted within the latter winds. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail, except over the SW Caribbean where winds are mainly gentle with seas in the 2 to 4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed over the Caribbean waters W of 70W, more concentrated in the Gulf of Honduras, including Belize and northern Honduras, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force SE winds and rough seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas on Sat morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail through Mon night, except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon night, pulsing to strong speeds at night over the south-central basin through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more details about AL92. The pressure gradient between the Invest Area 92 and a 1029 mb high pressure located N of Bermuda is producing an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the low center and W of 74W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted within these winds. A stationary front extends 31N46W to 27N59W to 30N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the front and mainly N of 25N between 42W and 56W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W where seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere, except reaching strong speeds off the coast of Africa N of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will prevail across the waters N of 28N through early Fri. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate winds through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank this evening through Sat night. $$ AReinhart