000 AXNT20 KNHC 211756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler Radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone. Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low. Only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche by this evening. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both areas above. East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Gale Warning issued by Meteo- France for the AGADIR Marine Zone has expired. Rough seas persist. For more details, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 22W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with its axis along 39W, south of 15N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N and between 38W and 44W. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 55W, south of 15N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N and between 50W and 58W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W, south of 16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave over the Caribbean waters at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 08N36W. A second segment of the ITCZ is from 10N42W to 08N51W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on the disturbance over the Yucatán Peninsula. Broad high pressure over the eastern United States dominates the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico and Central America support fresh to strong easterly winds over much of the southern half of the basin, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted elsewhere in the basin. Scattered moderate convection is across the Bay of Campeche and coastal Mexico south of 20N. For the forecast, winds over the SW basin are forecast to reach near gale-force later today as a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over SE Mexico, thus increasing the pressure gradient further. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the SW Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west- northwestward or northwestward. Winds E of 90W are forecast to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sat night and to light to gentle speeds on Sun. Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W Sun night into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A disturbance centered over southern Yucatan is producing a large area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection in the NW Caribbean, from 15N to 21N between 78W and 87W. A tight pressure gradient in the NW Caribbean is forcing fresh to strong trades, with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in remaining waters, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, strong to near-gale SE winds and rough seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas by Sat and then prevail through Tue night, except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to strong speeds at night over the south-central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about Invest AL92 off NE Florida. A surface trough extends from 28N42W to 23N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 30N between 42W and 50W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by subtropical high pressures centered north of the area. In the East Atlantic, the tight pressure gradient between the subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Africa provides for fresh to strong NE winds over waters east of 20W. Winds may pulse to near-gale force near 31N10W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this region of high winds. Across remaining waters, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas. Scatterometer data indicates trades may be pulsing to fresh speeds from 18N to 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92, fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 77W through today. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate winds through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are expected for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank today through Sat. $$ Mahoney