000 AXNT20 KNHC 220512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery, surface observations, and National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that the well-defined low pressure area is moving inland over southeastern Georgia. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation from this system is not expected. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both areas above. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 14N, westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N and between 23W and 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on recent scatterometer satellite data. The trough axis extends from 16N41W to 01N50W. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N and between 44W and 50W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 15N, westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 11N and between 51W and 60W. An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave over the Caribbean waters at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 09N30W to 07N25W, then from 07N27W to 08N45W and from 08N47W to 09N57W. The convection has been described in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on Invest 93L over the Bay of Campeche. A broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the influence of Invest 93L, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are occurring north of 25N and west of 90W and south of 27N and east of 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the NE Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with Invest 93L is affecting the waters of the Gulf south of 26N, including the Florida Straits. The strongest convection is observed in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is developing over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas E of 90W are forecast to diminish to gentle to moderate and slight seas Sat night and to light to gentle speeds on Sun. Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W Sun night into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is also producing isolated showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean. A line of showers and thunderstorms is noted in the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily east of Nicaragua. Generally drier conditions prevail in the rest of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the 1025 mb high pressure system north of Bermuda and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean, mainly west of 84W, and the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the north-central Caribbean. Elsewhere in the remaining waters, the easterly trades are gentle to moderate with 2-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and moderate seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas by Sat and then prevail through Tue night, except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to strong speeds at night over the south-central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about Invest 92L moving inland over SE Georgia. The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure system north of Bermuda. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are occurring south of 23N and between 70W and 77W, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N44W to 24N51W and a few showers are seen east of the trough axis to 41W and north of 23N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a strong 1030 mb high pressure system near the Azores. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over western Africa provides for fresh to strong NE winds over waters east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly west- northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas to 8 ft will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 78W through tonight. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate winds through early next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are expected for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank through Sat. $$ Delgado